The Los Angeles Lakers have surged up the Western Conference standings since adding superstar Luka Doncic to the mix last month.
Doncic, however, runs the risk of missing time against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight after suffering a bruised knee this past weekend. He’s a game-time decision for a Lakers lineup already missing scorer Rui Hachimura.
With gaps in the rotation and plenty of touches up for grabs, my Pelicans vs. Lakers predictions expect versatile forward Dorian Finney-Smith to step up. Read more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 4.
Pelicans vs Lakers prediction
My best bet
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 9.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
With Luka Donic possibly sitting (listed as questionable after banging his right knee versus the Clippers) and Rui Hachimura out of action, the Los Angeles Lakers’ lineup gets another shuffle.
Dorian Finney-Smith has jumped into Hachimura’s place for the past two games, playing 31 and 37 minutes in those two wins over the Clippers. The veteran forward scored 11 points in the most recent outing, shooting 4-for-9 from the field, including 2-for-5 on 3-point attempts.
Los Angeles welcomes the New Orleans Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena tonight, which serves as the final stop on a four-game road swing that takes the team out of the Big Easy on “Mardi Gras”… which sucks for the Pels.
New Orleans enters this game ranked among the worst defenses in the NBA, sitting 29th in advanced defensive rating, while giving up more than 120 points against away from home.
Finney-Smith is not only expected to see more minutes and touches than usual with Hachimura still sidelined, but L.A.’s other injury woes could also make him a vital part of the Lakers' offense tonight. His nine field goal attempts on Sunday tied his season high since joining the Lakers at the end of December.
Doncic isn’t the only other starter running the risk of sitting out. Point guard Austin Reaves missed Sunday’s game with a calf injury and is also questionable for tonight.
Los Angeles does have some key matchups ahead, with the Knicks at home on Thursday and a trip to play the Celtics on Saturday. This game against the punchless Pelicans could be used as a rest spot.
Given that, Finney-Smith’s projections have a much higher ceiling than what models forecast currently. Those projections range from 9.8 to 11.7 points, with my number coming out north of 10 points tonight.
His scoring prop opened as low as 8.5 points and has climbed to 9.5 at select books, which could still be too short considering the bigger role for Finney-Smith — pending the statuses of Doncic and Reaves.
Pelicans vs Lakers same-game parlay
Dorian-Finney Smith 10+ points
LeBron James 7+ assists
LeBron James 25+ points
Finney-Smith is getting big minutes as a starter with Hachimura out and could get many more touches if Luka and Reaves sit out tonight.
LeBron James will have the ball in his hands a lot if the Lakers are missing those key backcourt pieces. That leads to seven or more assists.
James will also have to take on a bigger scoring role should L.A. be without that scoring power in the backcourt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pelicans vs Lakers score prediction
Lakers 116, Pelicans 111
Considering the missing pieces to this scoring attack, it’s tough to back Los Angeles as 8.5-point chalk.
New Orleans keeps it close but can’t celebrate on “Fat Tuesday”.
Pelicans vs Lakers odds
Pelicans vs Lakers live odds
Pelicans vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +7.5 (-105) | Los Angeles -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: New Orleans +270 | Los Angeles -340
- Over/Under: Over 234 (-110) | Under 234 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Los Angeles opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and that has since ticked up to -8.5. The Lakers have won six straight and this extended homestay is helping L.A. build momentum.
• As for the total, the number hit the board at 234 points and shrunk to a low of 228 O/U, with the Lakers potentially missing Doncic and Reaves. Meanwhile, New Orleans could be without Brandon Boston.
• According to Covers Consensus, 74% of picks are laying the points with the home favorite, while 61% of total selections are siding with the Over.
Pelicans vs Lakers trend
New Orleans has cashed the moneyline just 22 times in its last 76 games (-35.10 Units / -31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Lakers.
How to watch Pelicans vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Spectrum SportsNet, GCSEN |
Pelicans vs Lakers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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