The New Orleans Pelicans will look to spring a second consecutive upset at the Target Center when they battle the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.
New Orleans isn’t likely to win again, but I like it to cover the enormous spread, so I’m taking it to cover in my Pelicans vs. Timberwolves predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s rematch in my free NBA picks for Friday, March 21.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Pelicans +15 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
These teams are playing the second half of a two-game series, as they also met up on Wednesday in Minneapolis. In that game, the New Orleans Pelicans scored a stunning 119-115 victory despite coming into the game as 13.5-point underdogs. Their reward: entering tonight’s game as an even bigger 15-point dog.
There’s a clear reason for the shift, as Zion Williamson (24.6 points per game) will again be missing time due to injury, this time sitting out because of a reported lower back contusion. Williamson scored 29 points on Wednesday and was the biggest threat to the Minnesota Timberwolves throughout.
Without him, it’s unlikely New Orleans can pull another upset. But that doesn’t mean this game has to be a blowout, either. Minnesota has lost two straight and has only covered in one of its last four games despite being listed as a double-digit favorite in each, a trend the Timberwolves have tacitly acknowledged needs to change as they head towards the playoffs.
The problem appears to be on the defensive end. Opponents have scored an average of 116 PPG over these last four, and while the Timberwolves board a relatively efficient offense, they aren’t the kind of high-powered team that can consistently give up big numbers and win. Certainly, that’s not a number that will allow you to cover as a double-digit favorite very often.
The Pelicans are certainly capable of being blown out, but that tends to happen more often when a team shuts them down defensively. While New Orleans is only 3-3 ATS over its last six games, it’s only lost by double digits twice in that stretch, both coming in games where opponents held the team to 93 points or less.
Even with Williamson out, it’s highly unlikely Minnesota holds NOLA to such a low number. The Timberwolves have only held three of their last 23 opponents below 100 points, and the Pelicans are pacey enough to make that unlikely to happen tonight.
Minnesota should win easily, but I’m only going to pass up 15 points in an NBA game in rare circumstances, and this game doesn’t qualify. I’m taking the Pelicans and the bounty of points.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Pelicans +15.5
CJ McCollum Over 21.5 points
Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points
CJ McCollum is about the only Pelican left on the court who can be a dependable scoring threat. McCollum is scoring 20.9 PPG on the year and will see his usage go way up without Williamson in the lineup.
I also like Anthony Edwards to hit his total of 27.5 points. Edwards has now gone over this total in five straight and should be relatively dominant tonight, especially considering how badly the Timberwolves need to break out of their current two-game losing streak.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves odds
Pelicans vs Timberwolves live odds
Pelicans vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +13.5 (-105) | Minnesota -13.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: New Orleans +600 | Minnesota -900
- Over/Under: Over 229 (-110) | Under 229 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pelicans are 28-41-1 against the spread this year, while the Timberwolves have put up a 32-38-1 ATS record.
- New Orleans and Minnesota have played twice this year, splitting the games SU and ATS.
- The Over has a 40-31 advantage in Timberwolves games this season and a similar 38-31-1 edge when the Pelicans have played.
- Minnesota is playing to an average total of 222.8 PPG, with New Orleans games averaging 229.5.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves trend
The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Timberwolves. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Pelicans vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, Gulf Coast Sports |
Pelicans vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
