Pistons vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Casey Curse Continues in the 6ix

The Toronto Raptors sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference with aspirations of climbing into the Top 6. They have multiple former and current All-Stars, an aggressive defense, and one of the best head coaches in the NBA.

But none of that matters when Dwane Casey and the Detroit Pistons walk through the front door. The Raptors’ former bench boss has seemingly cursed his old team, beating them in five straight meetings despite being sizeable underdogs each time.

Will it happen again tonight? Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Pistons vs. Raptors tonight, March 3. 

(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Thursday evening's news that Fred VanVleet would remain out for Toronto in Pistons-Raptors tonight.)

Pistons vs Raptors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference clash as 8.5-point favorites and after dipping down to 8.0, the money has come back on the home team with the line now sitting at 9.0. The total hit the board at 218, went down to 217.5 and sits at 218.5 as of Thursday afternoon. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pistons vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Pistons +9 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 218 (-110)
• Best bet: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-105)

Predictions made on 3/3/2022 at 3:27 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Pistons vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, Bally Sports Detroit

Pistons vs Raptors betting preview

Key injuries

Pistons: Frank Jackson PG (Questionable), Hamidou Diallo SF (Questionable).
Raptors: Fred VanVleet PG (Out), Thaddeus Young PF (Questionable), OG Anunoby SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Toronto. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Raptors.

Pistons vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Dwane Casey cares not if he is nearly a double-digit underdog against his former team. Casey was of course unceremoniously canned as the Raptors' head coach after another early playoff exit in 2018. Of course, the Raps traded for Kawhi Leonard and went on to win the NBA title. But did the title come with a Casey Curse?

Since becoming the head coach of the Pistons, Casey has faced his former team 11 times. Despite being an underdog in each of those matchups during the stretch, he is 8-3 straight up and against the spread. That includes going 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five meetings all as 5-point dogs or greater.

And frankly, it doesn’t make much sense. The Pistons have essentially been rebuilding that entire time while the Raptors have generally been among the contenders in the East. This year is no different.

The Raptors rank 14th in offensive and defensive rating. The Pistons are 29th and 27th respectively. The Raps also rank 11th in 3-point shooting percentage with the Pistons sitting at 29th. But none of that ever seems to matter. 

Heading into this matchup the Raptors bounced back from two terrible games coming out of the All-Star break by beating the Brooklyn Nets in back-to-back nights. 

Led by Cade Cunningham, who is among the Rookie of the Year odds favorites, the Pistons have come out of the All-Star break with some fight, going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS which includes wins over the Charlotte Hornets and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pistons have also managed to cover in each of their last five games overall.

The Raptors should win, and probably cover, but there’s no way I’m going against the Casey Curse.

Prediction: Pistons +9 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the Over has been the trend in this five-game run between the Pistons and Raptors, going 4-1 O/U in those meetings, and we’re leaning for that to continue in this one.

The Raptors' offense looked lost in the first two games out of the break but really settled down against the Nets, putting up 133 points and 109 in those games. That was more on par with a team that put up 115.1 points per game in their last eight games leading into the All-Star break. 

Getting VanVleet back would also be a big boon against a Pistons team that ranks 26th in scoring defense and is dead last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. 

Meanwhile, the Pistons are definitely still a long way away from being a good team again, but they are showing some signs of life and are putting up 110.2 points per game over the last five games. The Raptors have an aggressive defense but it can lead to open looks for opponents at times. 

That should be enough to get this one to sneak over the total.

Prediction: Over 218 (-110)

Best bet

The Pistons have plenty of areas they’ll want to improve on next season and one of those areas will certainly be rebounding. The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 24th in opponent rebounds per game.

That could create an opportunity for Raptors' rookie Scottie Barnes. Barnes was just named the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for February and put an exclamation on that by going for 28 points and 16 boards and then 18 points and 10 rebounds in the two games against the Nets.

With no OG Anunoby and Thaddeus Young questionable, Barnes should have plenty of opportunities to clean up the glass in this one.

Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-105)

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