Best NBA Player Props Today: Embiid Continues Spreading the Wealth

Prop bet #1: Banchero bounce back

The Orlando Magic are ascendant, and while there’s plenty of credit to go around, it would matter little if their top pick from last season wasn’t showing signs. Thankfully, Paolo Banchero looks like every bit the future No.1 option as his scoring, efficiency, and playmaking have all taken a leap this season.

So, it was odd to see him struggle against this season’s NBA punching bag, the Washington Wizards, on Wednesday. Paolo scored just six points on 2-8 from the field. What exactly happened there?

Having watched every shot attempt from that Washington game, there was (pardon the pun) nothing magic about what the Wizards were doing that caused Banchero to miss. He went 2-8 from the floor, and of those six missed shots five of them were open or easy looks that Paolo simply whiffed on.

Paolo threw his hands up in frustration when he finally got a shot to go on an and-one on his fifth shot attempt. That’s because he expects to score in these moments, and it’s a well-justified expectation.

In the five games prior to the first Wizards game, Paolo was averaging 23.6 points per game and didn’t have a single game where he scored fewer than 23 points. He’s as consistent as a sophomore player gets, metronomic in his scoring touch inside and beyond the arc. I like the Paolo Banchero odds for him to get back on track Friday.

Paolo Banchero prop: Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Rundown Randle

Julius Randle is a perplexing player. He’s an undeniable talent, a physical force, and elite scorer and rebounder. But his effort waxes and wanes like the moon, and he can be put on tilt by aggressive and physical defense. 

He’s even more susceptible to that when fatigued, as he and the New York Knicks are likely to be on Friday. While they had the chance to put away the Detroit Pistons early yesterday, they ended up letting Detroit back into the game and were forced to win the game in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.

The Toronto Raptors have the exact personnel to make things tough on Randle. They have strong and sound defenders in OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam who can bang with Randle but who also have quick hands. Then there’s Scottie Barnes who’s been a terror as a help defender this year. 

I'm expecting fatigue and frustration to give us favorable Julius Randle odds for four or more cough-ups.

Julius Randle prop: Over 3.5 turnovers (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Judicious Joel

People like to talk about how all NBA teams play the same way nowadays, but the baseline statistical trend of teams shooting more threes and fewer midrange shots doesn’t capture the whole story. Teams still play wildly different styles depending on the primary skills of their top talent, but also the philosophy of their head coach.

Tonight's Joel Embiid odds are a prime example. The Philadelphia 76ers were always going to be a team that lives at the free throw line and takes more shots from 15 feet than others because those are how Embiid makes his living as the reigning MVP. But nudging by Nick Nurse has seen him grow his game in new directions as well.

After doing little work as a playmaker in his career before now, Embiid has rapidly become one of the NBA’s best offensive hubs. He’s making better decisions with the ball, yes, but the ecosystem that he’s operating in also makes that job easier. 

Nurse has brought more spacing, more off-ball movement, and better positioning. All that has made it more difficult for opponents to double Embiid effectively. When they do, he has passing reads available to him that he’s completely capable of making. His assist rate is nearly 50% higher over last season, while his turnovers remain basically the same.

Embiid is averaging 6.6 assists this season, three above his career average. But he’s looked even more comfortable working in this new facilitator of late, as he’s averaging 8.4 assists over his last five games.

Joel Embiid prop: Over 5.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)