It’s a light night for NBA picks with just four games on the schedule but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
Tyler Herro will keep cooking against a Houston Rockets team that has a problem with the 3-ball. A healthy Brook Lopez is a bad matchup for the Memphis Grizzlies. And we go back to the well by backing a red-hot Zion Williamson to record a double-double in the New Orleans Pelicans' second straight game against the Utah Jazz.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, December 15.
NBA player props for December 15
Picks made on 12/15/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Having Herro's heater
Usually, I like fading the Miami Heat when it comes to made 3-pointer props. But with the way Tyler Herro is cooking, and the fact that he gets to go against a Houston Rockets team that has a real problem defending the perimeter, I’m willing to make an exception.
Herro is on a heater right now. Ever since returning from an ankle injury that cost him eight games, he is draining 40.4% of his nine threes per game. That works out to 3.6 makes per contest. And that should play against the Rockets squad.
The only team that gives up more than the 38.2 threes per game than Houston is the New York Knicks. At the same time, the Rockets rank 20th in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Back Herro at a decent price to hit three or more threes in this one, a number he has eclipsed three times in his last four games.
Tyler Herro Prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-132)
Brook gets looks
You can tell Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez is fully healthy for the first time in several seasons by the way he is playing and he’s making the most of it, becoming a weapon his teammates can rely on. And Lopez provides us with a solid prop betting opportunity when he and the Bucks visit the Memphis Grizzlies.
Lopez is averaging 14.3 points this season, the most since he was putting up 20 every night as a member of the Brooklyn Nets. The reason for that is he taking 5.4 threes per game (the most since his first year with the Bucks) and is hitting a very good 40.4% of those attempts.
Tonight, his made 3-pointer prop is set at 1.5 and he’ll have a great chance to go Over against the Grizzlies. For starters, the numbers say Memphis is not great at defending the perimeter. The Grizz allow the seventh most 3-pointers per game in the NBA while ranking 17th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
But it’s more than that. The Grizz just don’t match up well with a stretch-five who can shoot the 3-ball. Jaren Jackson Jr. will probably be busy dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and protecting the rim while slow-footed Steven Adams will have a tough time closing out on Lopez.
Take Lopez to go Over 1.5 made threes at a decent price, something he has done 17 times in his 26 games played this season.
Brook Lopez Prop: Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-125)
Back to Zion
On Tuesday night, I backed Zion Williamson to continue his torrid play and record a double-double against the Utah Jazz, and he came up just one rebound short from cashing a nice plus-money prop. And we are going back to that well with Williamson as he and the New Orleans Pelicans play their second game in Utah in three days.
Despite the Jazz winning 121-100 on Tuesday, Zion still managed to put up 26 points while grabbing those nine boards. It’s crazy the difference a healthy Williamson makes for the Pelicans, and now he is showing why he was picked No. 1 overall a few seasons ago.
And it seems like Williamson is in a festive spirit. The power forward is putting up 30.4 points on 67.8% shooting while hauling down 9.3 rebounds per contest over seven games in the month of December. And that spirit shouldn’t change in another matchup against the Jazz.
The Jazz have struggled on defense recently and are getting punished on the inside. Utah ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game. Additionally, the Jazz are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to rebounding, ranking 14th in rebound rate and 18th in opponent rebounds per game.
Zion has already recorded three double-doubles this month and just missed out on another the last time he took the court against this same Jazz team. At this +225 value, it’s worth another shot backing him to record another.
Zion Williamson Prop: To record a double-double (+225)
