With the public tending to bet on big-name players and Overs, sometimes the best value betting on NBA player props comes from considering the Under on numbers that look too high.
That's why I'm fading a couple of Texas-based point guards with my best free NBA prop picks for Saturday, December 17.
NBA player props for December 17
Picks made on 12/17/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Grounded Rocket
Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. has been filling up the hoop lately but he hasn't been knocking down many shots from beyond the arc.
He's coming off a 21-point performance against the Heat where he took 17 field goal attempts but only two of those shots came from deep and he missed both.
That was the third time in his last four games that he hasn't hit a single trey. The O/U on his 3-pointers made tonight is set at 1.5, a number he has gone below in five of seven games this month.
Porter has a 21.1 3-point percentage in December and while the Blazers are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to defending the arc, being able to take Under 1.5 at plus money is well worth it.
Kevin Porter Jr. Prop: Under 1.5 3-pointers (+150)
Limited help
Tre Jones leads the Spurs with 6.6 assists per game but the third-year guard hasn't been dropping as many dimes lately. Jones has posted six or fewer assists in five straight contests and is averaging 4.6 assists per game over that span.
The Spurs are hosting the Miami Heat tonight and while the Heat are .500 this season, it won't be easy to pick up many assists against them.
Despite their middling record, the Heat play at the third-slowest pace in the league and rank seventh in defensive rating. Take the Under on Jones' assists total, which is set at 6.5.
Tre Jones Prop: Under 6.5 assists (-125)
JV goes big
Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas has seen his playing time dip this season with Zion Williamson back on the floor, but he has been rebounding at a high level.
Today, Valanciunas and the Pels face off against the Suns who will be without starting center and leading rebounder Deandre Ayton due to an ankle injury.
The O/U on Val's rebounds is set at 8.5 a number he has eclipsed in nine of his last 12 games — including a pair of games against the Suns where he grabbed 10 rebounds.
Jonas Valanciunas Prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-130)
