Best NBA Player Props Today: Take This Thompson Under

Prop bet #1: Steady Freddie

The new-look Houston Rockets have quietly climbed to 13-9 this year, and Fred VanVleet’s steady backcourt presence has been a big factor in the growth of their young core.

I like tonight’s matchup for VanVleet, with the Milwaukee Bucks struggling to stop crafty guards on the perimeter. The length of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez may not make this an easy shooting night for VanVleet, but he’s an expert creator in the halfcourt.

Look for VanVleet to be ruthless in attacking his matchup against Damian Lillard, collapsing the defense and finding open shooters. The assists prop in the Fred VanVleet odds should be a top pick tonight. He had nine dimes in his most recent duel with Lillard, when he was a Raptor and Dame was still a Blazer.

VanVleet’s assist numbers have been a little more erratic this month, but he averaged 9.8 dimes a game in November, including a 16-assist effort against the L.A. Lakers, and he’s had nine assists twice since the calendar flipped to December.

This prop will hinge on the Rockets’ 3-point shooting. They’re knocking down 36% of their triples this year and are coming off to efficient outings from deep against the Memphis Grizzlies this week. 

VanVleet has had his share of battles against the Bucks over the past five years, and I’m taking these odds for the veteran guard to get Houston rolling in this latest meeting.

Fred VanVleet prop: Over 8.5 assists (-106 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: White shines bright

Derrick White’s ability to fill any role for the Celtics is an underrated strength in Boston’s title charge this season – he can be a scorer, a playmaker, a lockdown defender, and just about anything else Joe Mazzulla needs on a given night.

As the Celtics face the Orlando Magic for the second time in three days, I love these Derrick White odds to deliver another clutch performance. He had 19 points and eight assists against the Magic on Friday in Boston’s 128-111 win, and I’m dialing up his points and assist prop here.

White has flashed his scoring chops in December with 19.8 points a game, up from 13.6 last month, and he’s capable of cashing this prop with his shot-making alone. When you consider that White is also serving up five assists a game, this prop line feels strangely low.

But then that’s part of the deal with White. Surrounded by bigger names in Boston, there’s often a sense that he may not get enough touches as the least-recognized scorer in the Celtics’ first-choice starting lineup.

White continues to make a mockery of that and, as a 43% shooter from 3-point range this season, he doesn’t need a lot of looks to put up a solid stat line. This feels like a must-have prop for tonight’s slate.

Derrick White prop: Over 19.5 points + assists (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tough day for Klay

The Warriors visit the Portland Trail Blazers here on the second night of a back-to-back set, and I’m weighing up the impact on the Golden State veterans.

Klay Thompson played 36 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets yesterday, and while he finished with 24 points, he made just seven of his 19 shots. With a quick turnaround tonight, I’m gearing up to fade the points prop in the Klay Thompson odds.

Thompson has only had to deal with two sets of back-to-back games this season, but he’s struggled in the second night of both, averaging 16.5 points and shooting a combined 4-for-18 from deep. With his injury history, the fatigue factor is real.

While he hit six free-throws last night, it’s not as if he consistently gets to the line to pad his numbers, and he’s shooting just under 41% from the field this year.

Of course, it’s possible that he’ll transform into lights-out Klay on any given night, his numbers this season suggest that defenses are managing to force him off his favorite spots. He’s gone 1-for-8 from 3-point range twice in his last six games.

With Steph Curry in sizzling form and Brandin Podziemski emerging as another solid scoring option, the Warriors don’t need Thompson to be jacking up more than 15 shots a game, and I see him putting in a solid but unspectacular performance in Portland.

Klay Thompson prop: Under 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)