We’re just one week away from Christmas Day, a treasured holiday to some and to many others appointment viewing on the NBA regular season calendar.
To hold us over for the time being, there are seven games on the NBA slate for Sunday, December 18, and we’ve surveyed them all for the best value picks on the board.
Our three favorite NBA player prop picks for Sunday’s action feature a pair of New York Knicks players who are turning things around and LaMelo Ball’s outstanding shooting coming back from injury. Let’s dive in.
NBA player props for December 18
Picks made on 12/18/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
New Knicks, new Randle
The New York Knicks look like a different team. After a start to the season featuring enough defensive miscues and selfish offensive basketball to make the remaining wisps on Tom Thibodeau’s head fall right out, they’ve won six in a row in convincing fashion.
They’re playing a selfless style of basketball that is both effective and fun to watch and every Knicks player is doing their part. That collective buy-in is a product of scheme and lineup adjustments, including the insertion of Quentin Grimes and Deuce McBride into the rotation at the expense of less defensively capable players.
The other major element is the shift in Julius Randle’s play on both ends. Julius is being encouraged to switch more, which has him way more engaged and effective on the defensive end.
And with the Knicks showing heart on the defensive end, the offense has come around too, with Julius Randle leading the way. It’s much talked about how much Randle regressed last season after falling from 40% shooting from deep in his All-NBA season to just 30.8% last year.
This year he’s somewhere in between at 33.7%, but that obscures just how much he’s been letting it fly recently and how important he’s been to New York’s success.
now RANDL3?? with the HOT HAND ???? pic.twitter.com/8yhAuwWldw
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) December 17, 2022
Randle has made an average of 3.1 threes per game on 9.0 attempts over his last five games and is frequently getting into double-digit attempts. Jalen Brunson is also helping Randle get easier looks. He’s being assisted on his threes at a much higher rate than he was in either of his past two seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.
Importantly, Randle makes a concerted effort to bounce back after off-shooting nights, not allowing a prolonged slump to derail his season as it did for much of last year. He’s had three games in his last 10 where he’s hit just one three, but he’s followed up all of those performances by hitting three or more.
Last game was one of the low-volume nights for Randle, where he was happy to play defense, rebound, and facilitate to help the Knicks win. He likes to remind everyone after one of those nights that he can shoot the rock too.
Julius Randle Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-110)
Ball's Arena
The Charlotte Hornets are going nowhere fast. After being publicly torn a new one by head coach Steve Clifford for not playing a lick of defense to start the season, they turned around and let the similarly struggling Atlanta Hawks drop 125 points on them in regulation.
If there’s hope for this Hornets franchise, it’s coming in this coming draft and from the growth of LaMelo Ball. Ball has missed most of this season with a pair of ankle injuries, but in the five games he’s suited up, he’s shown why he’s such an important piece of the Hornets’ future.
Ball came into the league known as a shaky shooter and preternatural passing savant with questionable impact on winning. While the passing has been as expected, he’s pretty much shed the rest of that reputation whole cloth in his first two seasons by making his first All-Star team, becoming beloved by the all-in-one metrics that measure on-court impact, and showcasing that shooting is far from a weakness in his game.
If anything, it’s his outside shot that has been the quickest part of his game to return to form following the ankle injuries. Ball is shooting 37.9% on threes on an absolutely absurd 11.6 attempts per game. Six of those attempts per game are off-the-dribble threes, of which he’s hitting 43.3%. He’s one of the few players in the league who is shooting significantly better on pull-up jumpers than on spot-ups shots.
Denver has also just been a tire fire of a defense this season. They’re so good on offense that they are still one of the NBA’s better teams, but the shots will be there for Ball. Any team willing to play with pace and get up a lot of shots can push them around a bit
I was tempted to take the Over on just threes for Melo, but 3.5 is still a bit rich even given his volume. He’s also shooting an incredible 58.1% on twos so I’m going Over on Ball's point total on Sunday.
LaMelo Ball Prop: Over 21.5 points (-110)
Barrett's boards
RJ Barrett has been one of the most disappointing players in the NBA this season. After a close to the 2021 campaign that saw him relentlessly attacking the rim and piling up free throws to salvage a down year, he came out ice cold to begin the 2022-23 season. His shooting stats are still hard to look at, but he’s turned a corner recently and has seen growth in volume and efficiency in just about every area.
But perhaps more importantly, he’s seen the return of his defense and overall floor game. The vision for Barrett as a player is not likely to be the primary engine of an elite offense, but rather a complimentary offensive player who helps defend wings, rebounds, and fills in the gaps around another elite talent.
As the Knicks have found new life over their recent winning streak, Barrett has come alive as a defender and on the glass. He’s hit the Over on his rebounding prop in six of his last seven games and has shown a dramatic uptick in overall energy and effort as well.
RJ is now averaging 6.7 rebounds over his last five games. He seems a good bet to hit the Over tonight against an Indiana Pacers team that is Bottom 5 in rebounding on the season and also in the Bottom 10 in contested boards.
RJ Barrett Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-145)
