As the countdown to Christmas is on, we’ve got a jam-packed day with 11 gifts on the NBA schedule for excited basketball bettors to unwrap. That means there’s plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
Today, we look at pair of surprising plus-money 3-pointers made props for a couple of Western Conference superstars. And Domantas Sabonis will get buckets when the Kings take on the AD-less Lakers.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, December 21.
NBA player props for December 21
Picks made on 12/21/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Long-range Luka
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves for the second time since Monday. In the leadup to that game, I said, “as long as Luka is on the court and we're getting plus money on his made 3-pointers prop against the Timberwolves' allergic-to-perimeter defense, you know we're jumping on the Over.”
Well, Doncic came up one 3-ball short of hitting that Over, finishing the night going 3-for-8 from beyond the arc in a 116-106 loss. But even though the bet didn’t cash, I would happily make that bet again. So, let’s do just that.
Because we are getting +135 on Luka to go Over 3.5 made threes once again on Wednesday night. And plus money aside, there are a few reasons I’ll happily make the bet again.
One: Doncic has really found his shooting rhythm of late. Doncic is shooting 40.6% from 3-point range on 9.6 attempts per game over his last 10 games.
And two: The matchup with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball. The Wolves allow the second-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA while ranking 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Prior to the last game against Doncic had hit four or more threes six times over a nine-game span. So, I will call this play, “Operation Cannot Possibly Fail A Second Time.”
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 3.5 made threes (+135)
Dame Time continues
I feel like the NBA player prop market still isn’t properly understanding Damian Lillard’s modus operandi. When the Portland Trail Blazers' star guard is on the court, he will be jacking up treys... a lot of them. Yet we are still regularly getting plus money on his made 3-pointer props. That’s not going to change when the Blazers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.
We all know Dame is a cold-blooded sharpshooter but he’s been really dialed in since missing seven games with a calf injury at the end of November/early December. Lillard is draining a ridiculous 48% of his threes over his last eight games. But what really makes that number ridiculous is that he’s taking 12.8 threes per game.
Now, he gets to keep letting the threes fly against the Thunder for the second time in three nights and OKC has certainly had some problems defending the perimeter. The Thunder rank 22nd in opponent 3-point attempts per game, and 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Dame definitely took advantage of this matchup on Monday, going 6-for-12 from beyond the arc. It was the sixth time over this eight-game stretch in which Lillard had hit five or more threes from downtown, and as I said, we're still getting plus money for him to do it once again. Sign me up for that bet any day of the week.
Damian Lillard Prop: Over 4.5 made threes (+114)
Big man gets buckets
Life without Anthony Davis continues for the Los Angeles Lakers and a matchup with Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings gets all the more difficult with The Brow sidelined.
Sabonis has been rock solid during his first full season with the Kings, basically doing it all for his new team, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. And since the start of December, Sabonis has seen an uptick in his scoring.
The Sacramento big man is averaging 21.1 points per game on a crazy good 71.3% shooting over nine games and he’s going to be a handful for the Lakers.
L.A. is a middling defensive team that struggles to defend the paint. In fact, the Lakers rank 24th in the NBA when it comes to opponent points in the paint this season and that was with Davis on the floor for most of the season.
In the first two games with Davis sidelined with his latest injury, the Lakers allowed 21 points each to bigs Kristaps Porzingis and Deandre Ayton of the Washington Wizards and Phoenix Suns respectively.
We're getting a bit of an elevated points total for Sabonis at 20.5 but with him eclipsing that number six times in his last nine games and putting up 21 in his previous meeting against the Lakers back on Nov. 11, Sabonis is a solid value to go Over his point total once again tonight.
Domantas Sabonis Prop: Over 20.5 points (-130)
