Best NBA Player Props Today: Bane Takes Step Back With Morant Active

Prop bet #1: Bane of his existence

Ja Morant returned to the Memphis Grizzlies' lineup on Tuesday in dramatic fashion, nailing the game-winner to complete a massive comeback against the New Orleans Pelicans. It was exciting to see Morant on the court, but what was even more thrilling was this morning when I realized the sportsbooks aren't properly adjusting Desmond Bane's assists prop to account for his return.

With Morant back in the lineup as a high-assist player, it pushed Bane off the ball more against the Pelicans. Throughout the season, Bane had been averaging 11 potential assists per game, but in the superstar guard's return to the lineup, Bane only had four while Morant had 16.

This represents a significant shift in who is generating offense, and it also alters defensive coverage on Bane. When you're the focal point of the offense, you encounter more help defense, which, in turn, opens up additional passing lanes for you to generate assists. So, not only is Bane handling the ball less frequently, but the defensive focus is shifting toward Morant.

With Morant back in the lineup, Bane's assists prop needs to be adjusted down to 4.5 or even 3.5 with increased juice on the Over. The total of 5.5 is too high, evident in the projections as Bane is expected to have 4.8 assists tonight against the Indiana Pacers. With this projection, we can price Bane at -180 to go Under the total of 5.5 assists.

Desmond Bane prop: Under 5.5 assists (-130 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Giddey drops dimes

It would be rude to talk about this bet without addressing the fact that Josh Giddey was indeed benched in the Oklahoma City Thunder's game on Saturday against the Denver Nuggets. Do I think this is a permanent issue for Giddey? No, I believe the message was sent by Mark Daigneault and received by the guard, who responded with 16 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists against the Grizzlies in a blowout victory.

The ironic part about Giddey being benched against the Nuggets is that he finished the game with four assists in only 15 minutes. He still almost went Over this total despite not receiving his usual allotment of minutes. When it comes to Giddey, we aren't looking for anything extraordinary with his minutes in the pricing of this line. We just need him to receive the usual 25 that he's been averaging, and we have an edge at this number.

Specifically, in tonight's matchup, the Los Angeles Clippers try to hide James Harden defensively on whoever is in the corner. Typically, you want to space these defenders out with shooters, but I don't think anyone is worried about Harden as a help defender. It would be more beneficial to involve him in some actions. This is what I think the Thunder will do, and it will pull Giddey out of the corner and into spots where he can create for his teammates.

Giddey is projected to drop 4.9 dimes against the Clippers on Thursday, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -112, but it is available at +120 at DraftKings. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 16%.

Josh Giddey prop: Over 4.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Big day for Bogdanovic

If you're wondering how I landed on the Detroit Pistons moneyline bet, a big part of it was I was researching Bojan Bogdanovic's assists prop ahead of the matchup versus the Utah Jazz.

Do you know how badly Monty Williams wants this win? I would be shocked if we aren't looking at close to 40 minutes for both Bogdanovic and Cade Cunningham. Remember, this is a little bit of a revenge spot for Bogdanovic as well, as he was traded from the Jazz to the Pistons.

If you're looking at Bogdanovic's recent box scores, the two assists in five straight games are essentially nightmare fuel considering we're playing the Over on 2.5 helpers. But this doesn't scare me away from hitting the button. Bogdanovic is averaging 6.2 potential assists over this stretch, and he had seven vs. Atlanta on Monday.

The seven potential assists that we saw from Bogdanovic against the Hawks were very encouraging because of how they were coming in. The Pistons used Bogdanovic as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, and if the Jazz are indeed without Lauri Markkanen, this means less rim protection and a higher chance of the Pistons' bigs finishing at the rim.

Bogdanovic is projected to have 2.7 assists tonight against the Jazz, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at +100. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 17%.

Bojan Bogdanovic prop: Over 2.5 assists (+135 at bet365)