Best NBA Player Props Today: Fox Hunting for Buckets Rather Than Dimes

Prop bet #1: Maxxed out

Betting on Tyrese Maxey's odds delivered a win for me on Wednesday when I took the Under on his assists prop, and I'm revisiting that approach on Friday as Maxey faces the Toronto Raptors. 

Maxey has played against the Raptors twice this season, recording seven and four assists in those two games. However, even in the game where Maxey had seven dimes, he only had 10 potential assists. Maxey is averaging 11.5 potential assists per game this season but only 8.5 against the Raptors.

There has also been a disruption to the starting lineup for the 76ers, with both De'Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batum injured. This means we'll see more of Patrick Beverley in the rotation for the 76ers. 

If you're Maxey and the help defense slides your way, a pass to Melton or Batum typically results in a potential assist, as they're more than comfortable shooting from deep. If this pass is now going to Beverley, there's a much stronger possibility he will make an extra pass to someone else, thereby reducing potential assists.

Maxey is projected to have 6.4 assists on Friday against the Raptors, allowing us to set the Under 6.5 assists at -122. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 9%.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Under 6.5 assists (-103 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Dinwiddie reduced

Spencer Dinwiddie's odds regarding his assist prop is a fascinating one to assess because your opinion can shift drastically depending on the opponent. In a fast-paced, wide-open game, Dinwiddie excels at getting everyone involved and finding open shooters — as evident in his recent performances where he dropped 14 and 11 assists against the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors.

Unfortunately for Dinwiddie, a matchup against the Denver Nuggets is one where I'm looking to fade his assists prop. While Dinwiddie had eight assists against the Nuggets on December 14, he did so on only nine potential assists — a remarkable but nearly impossible statistic to replicate.

The Nuggets did an excellent job of defending the 3-point line against the Nets and forcing extra passes. For a Dinwiddie assists prop, this isn't ideal because now Dinwiddie's pass, which typically results in a 3-point attempt, is being swung multiple times until the Brooklyn Nets can find an open shooter. This eliminates a ton of potential assists for Dinwiddie.

Another issue for the Nets against the Nuggets is their lack of size. Brooklyn has Dinwiddie guarding Aaron Gordon on defense. With a crowded backcourt and the need for more size on the floor in this matchup, I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Dinwiddie's minutes to be reduced a bit here.

Dinwiddie is projected to have 6.7 assists on Friday against the Nuggets, which means we can price the Under 7.5 assists at -176. I know the -145 juice may seem steep when betting, but there is definitely a probability gap here that you should look to exploit.

Spencer Dinwiddie prop: Under 7.5 assists (-145 at theScore Bet)

Prop bet #3: Quiet Fox

De'Aaron Fox's odds are next on my list. He'll be facing the Phoenix Suns on Friday, and while I've placed a couple of Over bets on Fox's assists prop this season, I'm changing course and opting for an Under on Friday. 

This is very similar to the Dinwiddie bet, where a quick look at the box score might not immediately prompt you to hit the button on the Under 6.5 assists. When the Suns played the Kings on December 8, Fox exceeded this total with seven assists — but he did so on only 10 potential assists.

Against Fox and Domantas Sabonis, the Suns prefer to play a deep drop in the pick-and-roll, forcing Fox into jump shots and stopping Sabonis from being used as a hub. This defensive coverage encourages Fox to take more shots instead of passing the ball.

Several of Fox's assists in their last matchup occurred in a short time span when the Suns were blitzing Fox with Sabonis on the bench. This is why his potential assists are generally lower against the Suns.

The total of 6.5 with increased juice on the Over is a significant number for Fox in this specific matchup against the Suns. How the Suns choose to guard Fox should result in more shots than passes because Fox is adept at getting to his spot.

Fox is projected to have 6.5 assists on Friday, allowing us to price the Under 6.5 assists at -110, but it is available at Caesars for +110. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 10%.

De'Aaron Fox prop: Under 6.5 assists (+110 at Caesars)