It’s a bit of a light night of NBA action with just six games on the board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of basketball betting value to be found in the player prop market.
The buzz around Hornets center Mason Plumlee is that he could be primed for another double-double when the Thunder come to town. Pascal Siakam will continue to do it all for the Raptors when they take on the Grizzlies. And what’s the best way to back Luka Doncic, following his historic triple-double last time out?
Here are my best NBA player props for Thursday, December 29.
NBA player props for December 29
Picks made on 12/29/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
What's the buzz?
The Charlotte Hornets are playing an undersized Oklahoma City Thunder team, and you know what that means. It’s time for another Mason Plumlee double-double prop play.
Plumlee has been a solid presence in the middle for Buzz City this season, averaging 10.1 points and 9.2 rebounds, and has already recorded 11 double-doubles this season. An interesting note: Seven of those double-doubles have come at home.
What you can really like about putting a play on Plumlee's double-double in this one is the matchup with the Thunder. While OKC has some lengthy guards, the team lacks depth when it comes to its big men, and the numbers play that out.
The Thunder rank 25th in the NBA when it comes to opponent points in the paint, so Plumlee will have a solid opportunity to get to his scoring average. The Thunder have even more problems when it comes to cleaning the glass, as arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA (26th in rebounding rate and dead last in opponent rebounds per game).
I’m betting Plumlee takes advantage of this matchup with the Thunder and records his 12th double-double of the season. The plus money is the cherry on top.
Mason Plumlee Prop: To record a double-double (+120)
Spicy value
The Toronto Raptors are one of the hardest teams to handicap in the NBA this season. Full stop.
One night, they can look like a true contender in the Eastern Conference, the next, they have people wondering if they should throw their name in the Victor Wembanyama tank hat. So, how do you bet on a team with such varying highs and lows? By backing props for their most reliable player — Pascal Siakam.
Siakam has continued his All-NBA play from last season. Siakam is putting up 26.6 points while shooting 48.7% from the floor with 8.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game.
Part of the Raptors' problem this season has been they have been a terrible 3-point shooting team. So, Spicy P has picked up the slack there as well. Despite going 0-for-4 from deep against the Clippers, over his previous 10 games, Siakam is taking nearly five threes per game hitting a respectable 35.4% of his attempts.
Tonight, he could be primed to hit a few more treys thanks to a spicy matchup against the Grizzlies. Memphis is a sub-par team when it comes to defending the perimeter. The Grizz allow the sixth-most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 19th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Before the 0-fer against the Clippers, Siakam had hit two or more 3-balls in four straight games and six times over his previous 10. So, the +150 price on Spicy P to hit a pair of threes looks like a great value.
Pascal Siakam Prop: Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+150)
Can I get an encore?
I’m a sucker for Luka Doncic to go Over his made 3-pointers prop whenever we are getting plus money, and that’s the case when he and the Dallas Mavericks host the Houston Rockets tonight.
Doncic is coming off one of the greatest individual performances in NBA history. The Mavs’ superstar put up an incredible stat line against the Knicks, scoring 60 points, grabbing 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. It’s the only such triple-double in NBA history.
So, how does he follow that up? By draining some treys against the Rockets, and he’ll have a great opportunity to do so because Houston has a real problem when it comes to defending the 3-ball.
No team in the NBA allows more threes per game than the Rockets, allowing 38.8 per contest, while at the same time ranking 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Over the last month (16 games) Doncic has really found his rhythm from beyond the arc, hitting 41.4 of his 8.3 3-point attempts per game. He has hit four or more threes seven times over his last 12 games overall. That includes going an impressive 6-for-12 from beyond the arc against this same Rockets team just back on December 23.
Like I said, plus money on the Over 3.5 made threes in this matchup against the Rockets is too tempting for me to pass up.
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+120)
