We're leaping into the weekend with two young NBA studs on the rise this season — and a third who can't leap much higher (both figuratively and literally).
Some of the best prop bets on the market tonight are fueled by players in the midst of "the leap": a significant improvement in their output and confidence that raises their overall ceiling significantly. Books can sometimes be slow to catch up, expecting a regression that isn't coming.
Find out more as we break down our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, December 4.
NBA player props for December 4
Picks made on 12/4/2021 at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Most valuable prop
Nikola Jokic is having another superb season, picking up right where he left off with last season's run. Jokic is averaging a dominant 25.7 points, 13.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists — he's among the MVP betting favorites as it stands, and would be even higher on the board if Denver wasn't hugely capped by injuries right now.
Jokic's points + rebounds + assists prop sits at 44.5 tonight, and it's a market we love to target for versatile players like Joker who can run it up in a variety of stats and give this prop more options for an Over.
The Knicks aren't nearly as strong a defensive team as they appeared to be last season (19th, vs. fourth in 2020-21), and Jokic has to do more of everything for a team that's missing rookie sparkplug Bones Hyland in addition to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — its second and third-best players.
Over his past nine games, Jokic is 7-2 against tonight's total, averaging 47.9 in combined PRA and logging 40 and 44 in his two Unders. He'll make it close either way, and with so many ways to push himself Over, likely get there.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 44.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Leap of faith
Players making leaps are a great way to target prop markets, and Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. certainly seems to be in the midst of one.
The difference in Jackson's game between now and the start of the season is nothing short of startling. A guy who was a timid attacker with a busted jump shot just a month ago is now beating a wide array of defenders off the dribble, crashing the glass with vigor, finishing confidently in the post, and canning high-volume 3-pointers at elite rates.
With Ja Morant out, Jackson's usage and primacy have increased, and he's likely to continue seeing more looks as his confidence grows. Thus, his points Over/Under of 17.5 tonight is far too low against a Dallas Mavericks team that ranks just 21st in defensive rating and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Granted, Jackson's only 3-3 against this total in his last six games, but the three Unders were all blowouts in which he played limited minutes. Triple J is averaging 26 points in the Overs — including 27 points in 20 minutes in Memphis' legendary shit-kicking of OKC — which gives a far better indication of what his production should be like tonight.
Count on Jackson's growth to continue and for him to hit a comfortable Over here.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
(Triple) doubling down
We're headed back to the points + rebounds + assists market, targeting another player who's making a leap this season and sees a go-to market that's too low.
San Antonio's Dejounte Murray has become one of the NBA's more constant triple-double threats in an increased role this season, stuffing box scores on a nightly basis.
Tonight, he's up against a PRA market of 32.5, which he's topped in seven of his past eight games while averaging a combined 38.6 in that span.
Yes, he faces Golden State's league-leading defense tonight, but GSW also plays at a Top-10 pace and operates on offense faster than most elite defenses, giving Murray more possessions to rack up stats.
We're looking at a serious regression to hit an Under here, and the price seems reasonable.
Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at bet365)
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