Best NBA Player Props Today: Curry Gets a Passing Grade

Prop bet #1: Bang Bang 

This will be the Warriors' fourth game against the Thunder this season, but only Curry's third. In his previous two matchups this season, Curry had seven assists and three assists. The three assists might raise concern with a total of 4.5, but Curry had nine potential assists in that matchup, indicating ample opportunities.

Curry's assist numbers have been lower this year because he's been sharing a backcourt with Chris Paul. The sportsbooks face a challenge with Curry's assist props because when Paul is in the lineup, they have to price Curry very differently.

With Paul back from injury, the adjustment has been made to drop Curry's assists from 5.5 to 4.5. I'm sure this adjustment feels justified to the sportsbooks because Curry only recorded one assist in Paul's return on Wednesday. However, the issue with this pricing is that Paul wasn't in the starting lineup with Curry on Wednesday.

Not only was he absent from the starting lineup, but the Warriors didn't even really put them on the floor at the same time. This is a significant change from the beginning of the season, because it puts Curry on the ball more while also limiting Paul's impact on Curry's assists. Seeing this, I believe the adjustment on Curry's line to 4.5 (+125) is an overcorrection, prompting me to hit the button.

Curry is projected to drop 5.1 dimes against the Thunder, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -130. Consequently, we see a substantial positive expected value in Stephen Curry odds at bet365.

Stephen Curry prop: Over 4.5 assists (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Dallas dishes

If you're digging through the recent assist numbers for the Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic's name is going to jump off the screen. However, when it comes to finding an edge in the betting numbers, I actually believe Kyrie Irving odds present a stronger betting opportunity.

The Mavericks are set to face the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, and Deandre Ayton is questionable with a knee injury after missing the game on Wednesday. With the Trail Blazers already missing Robert Williams, and Ayton out with an injury, they started Duop Reath at center.

Why is this significant for an Irving assist prop? Irving excels at finding Dereck Lively on lobs, and these dunks translate into easy assists for Irving. The Mavericks also have players like Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr. who cut and finish at the rim. 

With Reath potentially being the last line of defense for the Trail Blazers, there's a strong possibility that the backline defense isn't as robust due to a lack of experience, opening the door to easy assists for Irving.

Irving is projected to have 5.4 assists on Friday against the Trail Blazers, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -150, but it's available at -115 at bet365. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 12%.

Kyrie Irving prop: Over 4.5 assists (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Miller Time

Miller has spent most of his rookie season with an assists total of 1.5, and it was recently bumped up to 2.5, but not fully. We still have a significant plus-money price available on the Over. I agree with the move, especially considering the injury to LaMelo Ball, but I don't think it has been adjusted enough based on Miller's evolving role within the Hornets' offense.

Players who trade with a total of 2.5 assists at a big plus-money price are usually those whose role on offense is to stand in the corner. Perhaps this was more of Miller's role early in the season as a rookie with Ball as the starting point guard, creating all the offense. However, that's definitely not his role at the moment.

I watched the Hornets in their last game against the Chicago Bulls, and Miller was bringing up the ball in transition, running some pick-and-rolls, and catching the first pass off a Terry Rozier pick-and-roll. Am I expecting Miller to have six assists on Friday? No, but he is much more involved in the Hornets' offense than a player who should be trading at 2.5 (+140).

Miller is projected to have 2.6 assists on Friday against the Raptors, which isn't quite the three assists we need to go Over the total of 2.5, but it's the +140 price point that gives us an edge on this line. Based on this projection, we can price Brandon Miller odds at +110 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists.

Brandon Miller prop: Over 2.5 assists (+140 at bet365)