It’s the final day of NBA action before the All-Star break this weekend. That means one more chance to build up our bankrolls with some winners in the NBA player props market.
There are just three games on the board tonight, but I’ve got a trio of point total props that I’m honing in on. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the hottest player on the planet again, Kristaps Porzingis is playing his best basketball of the season, and Kawhi Leonard takes on a shorthanded Suns side.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, February 16.
NBA player props for February 16
Picks made on 2/16/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Greece is the word
The Milwaukee Bucks have won 11 games in a row, and it’s no surprise that Giannis Antetokounmpo is the catalyst.
The Greek Freak is having another MVP-caliber season, averaging 32.4 points on 54% shooting, to go along with 12.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. It's somewhat crazy to think he’s playing even better than that right now, but that’s exactly what’s going on, as Giannis is in another one of his patented hot streaks.
Antetokounmpo has upped those averages to 37.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists over this 11-game winning streak, and he’ll be a handful for the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls have been a solid defensive team this season, but they’re in a tough spot here. Giannis has always been a bad matchup for them, and tonight Chicago is playing the second half of a back-to-back.
The Bulls are coming off a gut-wrenching loss to the Pacers last night, in a game where they held a 24-point lead in the first half. It will be interesting to see if they come out with the same energy in this one.
Antetokounmpo has been a thorn in the Bulls’ side this season. In a matchup on Nov. 23, he put up a stat line of 36 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. Then he went nuclear on Dec. 28, going off for 45 points with 22 boards and seven assists.
A point total of 34.5 seems a little elevated, but not when you consider current form and the matchup. Giannis has topped this number seven times in his last nine games, and I’m betting he does it again.
Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 34.5 points (-104)
It had to be Unicorn
Kristaps Porzingis might not want the All-Star break the way he's performing right now. The Unicorn is arguably playing his best basketball of the season heading into tonight’s matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Porzingis is averaging 23 points on 48.9% shooting from the floor for the season. But he has been on fire over his last nine games, bumping that average up to 29 ppg with a field goal percentage of 60.6%, including 50% from 3-point range. He’ll have a chance to keep that up against the T-wolves.
Minnesota has a solid interior defense with Rudy Gobert protecting the paint, but he's questionable to play in this matchup with a groin injury. He would be joining an already injured Karl-Anthony Towns on the sidelines.
But while Minny does a decent job defending the interior, it’s the T-wolves' perimeter defense that leaves something to be desired. Minnesota ranks 19th in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Porzingis’ ability to work inside and out will be a problem for the T-wolves, and he’ll be near unstoppable if Gobert can’t go. Porzingis has gone Over 23.5 points five times in his last seven games. He'll get there tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis prop: Over 23.5 points (-110)
Kawhi has his way
The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night, and this matchup has the potential to be a Western Conference Finals preview, particularly once Kevin Durant returns to action.
But with KD still out, and the Suns dealing with some other injuries while adjusting to life without their two best perimeter defenders in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, containing a guy like Kawhi Leonard could be a problem tonight.
Leonard is fully healthy and has looked like his old dominant self since early January. Over his last 16 games, Leonard is playing 36.5 minutes per contest and is averaging 28.3 points on 52.9% shooting, which includes an impressive 49.4% from 3-point range.
Leonard’s point total is set at 24.5 points for this matchup, and while he’s fallen below that in two of his last four games, I think that number is a little low. He’s gone Over that number 12 times in this 16-game stretch, and is coming off a 33-point performance against the Golden State Warriors last time out.
The Suns are lacking guys who can effectively guard Leonard at the moment, so I’m betting he’ll eclipse this number once again tonight.
Kawhi Leonard prop: Over 24.5 points (-105)
