Best NBA Player Props Today: Nickeil of Time

Prop bet #1: Pacers can't keep up with Brunson

Jalen Brunson has fallen Under his assists total in back-to-back games against the Indiana Pacers, resulting in this total dropping from 8.5 to 6.5. That's a significant move, especially when considering we aren't really seeing increased juice on the Over 6.5 (-114). I think we can attribute this edge on Friday to his foot injury.

In Game 1, Brunson had six assists out of 15 potential assists, falling Under the total of 8.5. It's not that the opportunities for Brunson weren't there, the potential assists just didn't convert for him. Then, fast forward to Game 2, and Brunson falls Under the total of 8.5 once again with only five assists, but he missed significant time in the first half with a foot injury.

Brunson had five assists in 32 minutes and played the entire second half when he returned from the injury. Are you telling me that if he doesn't play 40+ minutes instead of 32, Brunson wouldn't have surpassed the total of 6.5 in Game 2? I think it's very likely, but in my opinion, this total is adjusting to the final box score, which shows Brunson falling significantly Under the total again because it was trading at 8.5 for Game 2.

If you're worried about the injury, I'd say either Brunson isn't playing (and your bet will be voided) or he is playing 40+ minutes, and there's no in-between. Tom Thibodeau played Brunson for the entire second half in Game 2 when he returned from the injury.

Everything in this New York Knicks offense runs through Brunson; his usage is sky-high, and he is constantly creating offense for the Knicks. As the Pacers begin to blitz Brunson and send even more double-teams, we should see the potential assists climb for Brunson, especially with his teammates being even more dependent on him to run the offense due to all the injuries they have suffered.

Brunson is projected to have 7.4 assists on Friday against the Pacers, allowing us to price the Jalen Brunson odds on Over 6.5 assists at -147, although it is available at -114 at Pinnacle.

Jalen Brunson prop: Over 6.5 assists (-114 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Joker won't get last laugh

The Denver Nuggets have their backs against the wall and need a win in Game 3 to have any hope in their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. With the game on the road and Jamal Murray battling injury, you'd expect to see the Nuggets lean on their MVP, Nikola Jokic. But I'm taking the Under on Jokic's points prop at plus-money.

The Timberwolves have all of the defensive pieces to be extremely disruptive to Jokic's offensive game, and you can see it on film. When you have Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels on the perimeter locking down Jamal Murray, the team defense can focus on Jokic and make his life miserable, and that's exactly what is happening. 

The Timberwolves are sending a ton of different coverages and mixing it up, as they have the individual defenders to make this happen. One time they might just guard him with Karl-Anthony Towns, another time it might be a double on the catch, and another time it might be a double on his first dribble or even a stunt and no double. The Timberwolves are hitting Jokic with everything, and it's extremely disruptive to his ability to find quality shots. 

Jokic only had 13 field goal attempts in Game 2, as the Timberwolves were able to keep him guessing on their coverages, taking away several shot attempts. Even on the shot attempts Jokic did take, everything is contested because of the size and length of the Timberwolves. Nothing is coming easy for Jokic in this series, and I love how the Timberwolves are using Rudy Gobert as the help defender.

Jokic is projected to score 26.8 points on Friday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Nikola Jokic odds on Under 28.5 at -149, but it is available at bet365 at +115. There's also some 29.5s out there in the market, but at the current juice we are seeing, the Under 28.5 at plus-money is showing a higher expected value.

Nikola Jokic prop: Under 28.5 points (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Nickeil's dimes

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has gone Under on his assists total in back-to-back games here to start the series against the Nuggets, only recording one assist. It has caused the juice on his total of 1.5 to drop down to -125 on the Over, and at that price, I'm hitting the button.

When you look at Alexander-Walker in this series, while he is a bench player, his minutes are extremely secure. He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the entire NBA, and the Timberwolves need him to lock up Murray one-on-one so their help defense can focus on Jokic. Alexander-Walker also plays on the Canadian National Team with Murray, so when it comes to a defensive scouting report, he most certainly has it.

In order to establish a nice edge on this price of Over 1.5 assists (-125) for Alexander-Walker, we really only need him to play around 23 minutes. That's the exact number of minutes he played in Game 1, but over his last six playoff games, he is averaging 29.5 minutes. I don't see a scenario where Alexander-Walker plays less than 23 minutes, and if anything, we should see elevated minutes because of his role on defense, which would only increase our edge.

The Nuggets can't take away everything on defense, and with their attention on Anthony Edwards and probably more attention going to Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 3, Alexander-Walker will find himself open a lot on offense. He is capable of driving the lane and finding one of the bigs on a dump-off. The return of Gobert will also help Alexander-Walker's assists prop as a lob threat and someone who can take a potential assist around the rim and turn it into a dunk.

Another aspect I like about Alexander-Walker's assists prop is that the Timberwolves did an excellent job of getting their hands in passing lanes and forcing turnovers against the Nuggets. Alexander-Walker is heavily involved in forcing these turnovers, and he likes to run the floor. A fast break following a turnover is an easy way to get an easy assist, and Alexander-Walker could find himself in the middle of some of those plays on Friday.

Alexander-Walker is projected to have 2.4 assists on Friday against the Nuggets, which allows us to price the Nickeil Alexander-Walker odds on Over 1.5 assists at -189, but it is available at bet365 at -125.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker prop: Over 1.5 assists (-125 at bet365)