Best NBA Player Props Today: Barnes' Door is Closed

Prop bet #1: Scottie struggles

Usually, when I discuss NBA player props, I highlight any movement in their assists total. For Scottie Barnes, that's not really the case. The total of 5.5 assists is quite common for Barnes, but there have been multiple disruptions to the Toronto Raptors lineup without his total adjusting to a new number.

I think we're all aware of the additions of Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, but what does that mean for Barnes? Well, there are fewer playmaking responsibilities because both Quickley and Barrett can create offense. Not only is Barnes now starting alongside two players who can create offense, but when the Raptors turn to their bench, they are bringing in Dennis Schroder, who can also create offense.

The second disruption is that the Raptors will be without Jakob Poeltl against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. The Raptors opted to start Thaddeus Young in his place on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Lakers — yes, he's still in the NBA. So, not only does Barnes lose his roll man in the pick-and-roll, but the Raptors don't really have a replacement who can score on the interior and help Barnes collect easy assists.

Barnes is projected to have 5.1 assists on Wednesday against the Clippers, allowing us to price the Under 5.5 assists at -150, but it is available at DraftKings at -120. Based on this projection, this bet on the Scottie Barnes odds shows a positive expected value of 10%.

Scottie Barnes prop: Under 5.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Don't worry about Murray

Whatever you do, don't look at Dejounte Murray's recent assist totals before placing this bet; it'll make you not want to hit the button. If you're a trends bettor, you're going to absolutely hate this wager, as Murray has gone Under his total in six of his last seven games. 

My counterargument to that trend is that his recent Unders are the reason we're getting one of the best prices we have seen on Murray's Over this season. Usually, a +110 for the Over on Murray is reserved for a total of 5.5, and at 4.5, we have to lay slightly increased juice. Plus money on the Over 4.5 assists? Sign me up, and there are basketball reasons for it.

Joel Embiid has been ruled out for the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. This is relevant to a Murray assist prop because Embiid is one of the better rim protectors in the entire NBA. With Embiid out of the lineup and the Atlanta Hawks possessing lob threats in Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and even someone like Jalen Johnson who can put pressure on the rim, the opportunity for assists around the basket should be there for Murray. These potential assists are of high value.

Murray is projected to drop exactly five dimes against Tyrese Maxey & Co. on Wednesday, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -125, but it is available at bet365 at +110. There's also a +110 available at DraftKings and Caesars for the Over on the Dejounte Murray odds, so you have options on where to place this wager.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 4.5 assists (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: McDaniels makes it happen

The injury news and delayed flight for the Minnesota Timberwolves has created a lot of chaos in the market around this game, but I also think it's opening the door for us to place this bet on Jaden McDaniels. Mike Conley is out for the Timberwolves, and Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Boston Celtics.

What that means for the Celtics is that they will be without their primary rim protector against a team with a ton of size. McDaniels just had this same opportunity on Sunday against the Dallas Mavericks when they were without Dereck Lively, and he was able to drop four dimes in that game. Now, be warned, Rudy Gobert is also questionable for Wednesday's game, which would let the Celtics off the hook a bit for also missing Porzingis.

The other thing I like about backing McDaniels is that they need his minutes against the Celtics. He is an excellent perimeter defender who is long and has size and will be the primary defender on Jayson Tatum. There's no reason for Chris Finch to hold back his minutes against the Celtics, especially since they will already be without Conley. Finch didn't last time they played the Celtics, as McDaniels played 45 minutes in an overtime thriller.

Also, as a side note, McDaniels had four potential assists the last time he played the Celtics, which is a big number when you're talking about a total of 1.5 with the Over trading at +150. 

McDaniels is projected to have 1.6 assists against the Celtics on Wednesday, which seems light considering we need two for a green checkmark, but it's the juice that is the key here. With this projection, we can price McDaniels at +115 to go Over the total of 1.5 assists, but it is available at bet365 at +150.

Jaden McDaniels prop: Over 1.5 assists (+150 at bet365)