Best NBA Player Props Today: Fade Quickley in New Role

Prop bet #1: Immanuel Quickley

When Pascal Siakam was traded to the Indiana Pacers, I saw mixed reviews on the move. Some people were thrilled with the return of three first-round picks, while others were frustrated that Siakam wouldn't be a part of the Toronto Raptors' long-term plan. Nevertheless, any frustration Raptors fans may have felt about this trade was swiftly dispelled when they blew out Miami on Wednesday night.

Playing a significant role in Wednesday's win was point guard Immanuel Quickley, who the Raptors recently acquired from the Knicks. Vibes are high with Quickley in Toronto, and the fanbase has high expectations for him. Many feel like he just needed an opportunity for increased minutes.

That being said, the narrative around Quickley is positive, and public perception is also high. In the sports betting world, this typically means that the numbers get a little inflated, and we have to consider betting on the Under for your player props.

Upon Quickley's initial arrival at the Raptors, his point total stood at 15.5, and it has since ascended to 20.5. Despite the expectation that Quickley's usage percentage would rise in the absence of Siakam, the statistics reveal that in the seven games that Quickley played with Siakam, he boasted the highest usage percentage among all Raptors players.

So, how much is really changing for Quickley without Siakam in the lineup? If anything, life might get more difficult for Quickley, as he now becomes more of a focal point for opposing teams' defense. Just ask Jordan Poole about that one.

Quickley is projected to score 18.8 points on Thursday against the Chicago Bulls, allowing us to price the Under 20.5 points at -170. However, it is available at PointsBet at -116.

Immanuel Quickley prop: Under 20.5 points (-116 at PointsBet)

Prop bet #2: Jalen Brunson

After missing two games with an injury, Jalen Brunson returned on Wednesday night for the New York Knicks and scored 30 points against the Rockets. The Knicks will now be on the back end of a back-to-back on Thursday, which isn't typically a great spot for someone who just recently came off of an injury.

With Brunson's points total listed at 28.5, this figure reflects the impressive performance of the Knicks point guard throughout the season. However, it may not be considering his most recent injury that sidelined him for two games. 

The Knicks won't need Brunson to have a big game against double-digit chalk against the Washington Wizards, as everyone on the Knicks will be able to score and create. I expect Brunson to play on the back-to-back, but I'm sure the conversation is that once they build the lead, he'll be one of the first players to sit on the bench because of his injury.

I think there's a very strong possibility that Brunson sees decreased minutes on Thursday, which would provide a nice boost to a bet I already favor the Under on at 28.5 points. 

Brunson is projected to score 27.6 points on Thursday against the Wizards, allowing us to price the Under 28.5 points at -135. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 23%.

Jalen Brunson prop: Under 28.5 points (+114 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the leading scorers in the NBA and is in the thick of the MVP race, so I know an Under bet on his points prop is going to be a tough sell. The thing with the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar is that he isn't the only one playing at a high level at the moment. The Utah Jazz are 9-1 in their last 10 games and currently rank fifth in the NBA in defensive rating.

Not only has the emergence of Kris Dunn as the Jazz's point guard helped them spur their winning streak, but Dunn is also a significant reason why we're taking the Under on Gilgeous-Alexander's points prop on Thursday. When you look at the defensive EPM metrics, Dunn is right up there with some of the best in the NBA at his position.

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the few players in the NBA where I'm not even sure if there is a defense that can stop his scoring. However, we're not trying to completely shut down his scoring; we're just trying to find something disruptive enough to send him Under the total of 31.5 points — aka Dunn.

SGA is projected to score 30.3 points on Thursday against the Jazz, allowing us to price the Under 31.5 points at -140. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 14%. There's also a 32.5 (-120) available at PointsBet, but based on our projection, these two bets were showing an identical expected value.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Under 31.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)