Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: McCollum Makes the Grade

You have to give it to the NBA. They know when to sidestep. 

With the Big Dance starting up again Thursday night, the Association puts forth a modest four-game schedule and let’s the college kids have their fun. But thanks to the massive menu of NBA player props, there’s no shortage of wagering options in the pro ranks.

Here are my best NBA picks and predictions for March 23.

NBA player props for March 23

• Barrett Over 18.5 points (-115)
• Leonard Over 29.5 points (-111)
• McCollum Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Picks made on 3/23/2023 at 12:55 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Grin and Barrett

The New York Knicks stay in the Sunshine State for a matchup with the Orlando Magic tonight, fresh off a loss in South Beach on Wednesday.

Tonight’s total sits at 228.5 points, which is on the higher end for New York’s recent Over/Under numbers — due in part to two rotten defensive showings from the Knicks. However, New York has countered with offense of its own. And many of those points are coming from forward R.J. Barrett.

Barrett scored 26 points on 8-for-13 shooting in Miami last night and has really stepped up his game this month. The 6-foot-6 Duke product is averaging 21.5 points in March and faces a scoring prop of 18.5 (Over -120) in Orlando — a bar he’s surpassed in seven of his last nine games overall.

I have the Canadian projected to put up 20.7 points against a Magic defense ranked out 18th in defensive rating so far this month. Orlando also allows 115.4 points against per home stand — one of a handful of NBA teams that give up more as hosts.

Barrett has topped his points prop in seven of his last 10 games, with those totals climbing as high as 22.5 points. His total for tonight seems too low, even with New York playing the second of back-to-back outings. Snatch up those Over 18.5 prop lines now, because this has climbed to 19.5 at some shops.

R.J. Barrett prop: Over 18.5 points (-115)

To Live and Kawhi in L.A.

The Los Angeles Clippers suffered a crushing blow to their postseason push with star forward Paul George going down with the knee injury that could keep him out of action for as many as three weeks.

That puts more pressure on Kawhi Leonard to carry the Clippers to the finish line, with the team currently sitting No. 5 in a log-jammed Western Conference. George suffered that injury in a home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who return to Crypto.com Arena tonight.

Kawhi is averaging 27.4 points through his seven appearances this month. While tonight’s game total (232.5) takes a dip from Tuesday’s projected points (closed 238), I still have Leonard putting up 28.5 points versus the Thunder, and that’s before factoring in the massive gap PG leaves in the Clippers' offense.

Leonard scored just 21 points on 7-of-16 shooting and went 5-for-7 from the foul line in Tuesday’s loss to OKC. George logged 35 minutes, took 17 field goal attempts, and scored 18 points before going down late in the game. Along with added touches on offense, Oklahoma City plays an up-tempo pace that gives L.A. extra possessions.

Leonard and PG have somewhat been attached at the hip in recent rest spots, so you must go back to mid-January to see Leonard’s output with George off the floor. George missed a string of five straight games to start January, with Kawhi going for 29, 33, 24, and 30 points in his four outings in that span, and attempting 20 or more field goals in three of those games.

I see a high volume of attempts tonight and more than 30 points for Leonard.

Kawhi Leonard prop: Over 29.5 points (-111)

Big Easy Money

The New Orleans Pelicans are among those many Western Conference clubs duking it out down the home stretch for a spot in the play-in tournament, currently a half-game back of 10th place and just two games out of sixth.

Tonight’s non-conference clash with the Charlotte Hornets sets up well for the Pelicans’ plans, laying eight points with a taller team total of 117.5. That’s calling for a significant uptick in offensive possessions for the Pels, and potentially a busy night for guard CJ McCollum.

McCollum is averaging just over 21 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this month, and faces a combo prop for points + assists + rebounds at 31.5 (Over -125) for tonight’s game.

Even with McCollum’s points production dipping a bit over the past four games — scores of 15, 26, 14, and 13 — he’s still very active in the offense with a total of 24 assists in that span. I have his projected points + assists at 28.7, but rebounding is the real kicker for this player prop.

Charlotte has been horrendous on offense in March, owning a league-low offensive rating as well as a bottom-dwelling effective field goal rate of 50.2%. On top of all those misses, the Hornets rank out 25th in rebound rate (47.9%) in that span.

The Pelicans are among the better defensive teams in the NBA, owning the fifth-best advanced rating this month (No. 8 overall on the season) while hitting the boards hard at No. 8 in rebound rate (50.8%).

The 6-foot-3 McCollum is not afraid to mix it up on the glass, upping his average to 5.6 rebounds in March versus 4.3 before this month. He’s snatched eight rebounds against another lackluster offense in San Antonio on Tuesday.

When you add it all up, I have McCollum going for a total of 34.6 points + rebounds + assists, which gives us plenty of head room with his prop total as low as 31.5 and up to 32.5 on the high end tonight. He’s only topped this combo prop once in the last four games, but is 6-4 O/U in this market in March and gets a great matchup tonight. 

CJ McCollum prop: Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

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