As the NBA continues to barrel toward the All-Star Break, tonight’s slate of games largely provides a rare chance to not worry about anyone facing a scheduling disadvantage. No one is on the second night of a back-to-back.
Instead, my favorite NBA player props and NBA picks will focus on a defensive mismatch, a shorthanded lineup, and an underrecognized inadequacy for Monday, January 27.
Best NBA player props today
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Mark Williams Under 16.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Dyson Daniels Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
NBA player props for January 27
Mark Williams Under 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Lakers are surging in a way that could have long-term implications. They have won five of their last six, the timing somewhat coinciding with Anthony Davis and LeBron James both making trade demands. No, they are not demanding a trade elsewhere. They are demanding the Lakers front office make a trade to improve the roster, firmly believing the team is just a piece away from genuine title contention.
That may sound bold, but as long as James is healthy and Davis is playing at this level — 25.4 points on 52% shooting and 11.6 rebounds per game in his last five games — then Los Angeles would already be a difficult postseason bounce.
So when Davis says he needs to play next to a center to be at his best, the front office may listen and go find a center.
The thing is, they have not done so yet. Davis still starts at center. His defensive prowess reigns there yet, no matter how much he doesn’t enjoy it.
And as much success as Charlotte Hornets forward Mark Williams has had of late — six of 10 games over this points prop since his minutes finally reached 30+ on Dec. 30 — that should be stifled against Davis.
Particularly without Brandon Miller available for Charlotte, Davis’s defensive assignment should be singularly focused on Williams, and Davis needs to keep Los Angeles winning to keep the pressure on the front office.
Dyson Daniels Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Here we are again, with an Atlanta Hawks season stuck in mediocrity. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The difference tonight will be that the Hawks would love to simply be mediocre against the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are without Trae Young (hamstring) and Jalen Johnson (shoulder), while De’Andre Hunter is questionable with an illness that has been going around both the NBA and the country.
Perhaps Hunter plays. But logic says even if he does, he will be a bit worse for wear.
As much as all this suggests Atlanta will get blown out, someone on the Hawks will still need to shoot the ball. They will not turn over the ball on every possession.
Looking at usage rates in the last month, the most likely candidate is Dyson Daniels, ending 19.1% of possessions when he is on the court and someone capable of creating his own shot, certainly more than Bogdan Bogdanovic, with an 18.6% usage rate.
A third-year guard who has started every game this season, Daniels has averaged 14.8 points in the last month, all while in lineups with Young, Johnson, and Hunter. His 13.3 shots per game could be near 20 tonight, simply given the vacuum of proven scorers available for Atlanta.
Scottie Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Even when Zion Williamson is in the lineup, the New Orleans Pelicans are not a good rebounding team. In the last month, they rank No. 18 in offensive rebounding percentage, tracking down just 28.9% of their misses, and No. 29 in defensive rebounding, finding only 66.4% of opponents’ misses.
Think about that second number for a moment. Pelicans’ opponents corral more than a third of their own misses. For context: That would rank No. 3 in the league as a team, behind only the Rockets and the Grizzlies.
Williamson in the lineup does not help enough.
Toronto Raptors wing Scottie Barnes is one of the best rebounding perimeter players in the NBA, finding 8.1 per game this season and 8.6 in the last month. He has snagged at least nine boards in seven of his last 13 games, including two of his last three.
Any additional bounces will go Barnes' way because the Pelicans are an unserious team in one of basketball’s most fundamental ways and should be enough of an edge to push Barnes toward double-digit rebounds again.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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