It's another action-packed Saturday in the Association, with nine games and plenty of intriguing matchups, from the Melo-vs-Trae battle in ATL, to the possible trade-bait 76ers vs. Trail Blazers showcase.
But we're avoiding the bright lights tonight and focusing on the dirty work in the trenches: rebounding props. Rebounding isn't always the sexiest job, but someone's got to do it, and tonight, we've found two players who are very likely to, and another who isn't.
Get the scoop with our free NBA prop picks for Saturday, November 20.
NBA player props for November 20
Picks made on 11/20/2021 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Knock on Wood
Prior to Christian Wood's breakout season in Detroit, the undeniably talented center's attitude and effort were the main barriers to a steady spot in an NBA rotation. Hungry enough to earn a role, Wood grinded in limited minutes, becoming a low-key fantasy monster and popular target in the upcoming free agency class.
Unfortunately for him, he signed with the Rockets, who were about to trade Russell Westbrook and be very publicly dumped by James Harden, leaving them at square one of an arduous rebuild.
We're not going to pretend to be inside Wood's head, but it certainly seems like he's starting to check out with Houston just 1-15 on the season and clearly several years away from competing. Wood averaged a combined 30.6 points+rebounds last season, but has averaged just 20.0 in the market over his past six games, topping tonight's total of 26.5 only once in that span. Wood's shooting just 45 percent from the field and a horrid 42 percent from the line over the same sample — it's a slump that would seem uncharacteristic until you consider his past and very desolate situation.
The Knicks aren't the slow-paced scoring narcs that they were last season, but we still see enough of a pattern here to fade Wood's points+rebounds total.
Pick: Christian Wood Under 26.5 points+rebounds (-111 at FanDuel)
Unicorn evolving
Watching Jaren Jackson Jr's early-season performances shortly after Memphis gave him 100+ million dollars was tough to swallow. Their young neo-big man was shooting horribly, fouling everyone in sight, and playing with a tentativeness that betrayed the expectations of a breakout season.
One of Jackson's foremost criticisms was his lack of rebounding, but as JJJ's turned his season around, he appears to be putting more effort in on the glass. He's topped tonight's total of 5.5 rebounds in six of his past eight games and averaged 6.37 rebounds per game over that span.
Minnesota, tonight's opponent, still owns the NBA's worst rebounding rate, and Jackson should feel more comfortable hauling in boards in the space that Karl-Anthony Towns will naturally create, rather than banging in the post.
JJJ's been a staple in most of the Grizzlies' best lineups, and, despite Taylor Jenkins' sometimes-nebulous rotations, should see plenty of minutes in a fast-paced, low-defense game — provided he stays out of foul trouble. On that front, Jackson hasn't racked up more than three fouls in five straight games and is averaging almost a full foul less in November (2.8) than October (3.7).
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Rude rebounding
It's been a bit since we've checked in on Rudy Gobert's rebounding markets, which seem a bit more reasonable than when they were auto-bets at the beginning of the season.
Gobert's overall numbers on the boards have fallen to 15.1 per game, but this can be slightly attributed to Rudy logging fewer minutes in a few blowout wins. Conversely, his rebounding Over/Unders have risen slightly, and can be had at 14.5 for tonight's matchup with Sacramento.
Regression to the mean be damned, we're still hammering the Over here. Sacramento rates among the NBA's worst teams on the glass, ranked 23rd in rebounding rate. To boot, starting center Richaun Holmes hasn't hit double-digit boards in three games, with just three rebounds last night against Toronto.
The Jazz have played the Kings twice this season, with Gobert grabbing a monstrous 20 rebounds in each of those games. Given the matchup, we like him to at least best his average again.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 rebounds (-110 at FanDuel)
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