Best NBA Player Props Today: Wemby Keeps Finding Cutting Teammates

Prop bet #1: Barrett's bounceback

The New York Knicks notched a signature win last time out against the Heat, pulling off a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback to down their longtime rivals.

The lion's share of credit for the turnaround goes to Immanuel Quickley and Jalen Brunson in that order, as IQ kicked things off with some high-energy plays and Brunson ultimately closed the door.

But none of it would have mattered if not for the clutch scoring of RJ Barrett. He scored eight points in the fourth quarter, including a critical three and an and one with his right hand going right through the body of Bam Adebayo that gave New York the lead.

Barrett has had a strange season. He’s in the middle of his most efficient season as a player, but while typically an ironman, he’s missed two stretches of time already. The second was a three-game absence for migraines.

RJ was clearly fatigued in the first couple of games in his return, and his scoring totals in his last three games of 15, 14, and 18 are not inspiring. However, he scored 24+ in three straight games prior to those migraines. 

He looks like he got his wind back against the Heat, and they are a team full of defenders that can give him trouble. Against the Phoenix Suns, who don’t have an elite rim protector, I expect Barrett to bully his way to this Over.

RJ Barrett prop: Over 18.5 points (-110 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: Tip top Towns

Last season, many expected the trades the Minnesota Timberwolves made would see them transform into an elite regular season team overnight. It didn’t exactly go that way, but Rudy Gobert struggling to adjust to a new team wasn’t the only reason.

It was wildly undersold that the Timberwolves were also without Karl-Anthony Towns, their All-Star stretch big, for nearly three quarters of the season. Now that Gobert and Towns are sharing the court together, the vision from last year doesn’t look so crazy, with Minny sitting atop the Western Conference standings at 11-4.

The offensive fit between Gobert and Towns is still a bit awkward, but KAT has made a real effort to make good on it. He’s become better at picking his spots, mixing in aggression with patience, and is still bombing away from deep to ensure the Wolves have space to work with inside the arc.

Towns is taking 5.1 threes per game and is hitting a clean 40.3% of them. Over his last 10 games, KAT has hit two or more threes seven times. That kind of shooting, particularly from an opposing big, has been one of the many things that have the Memphis Grizzlies season close to flatlining.

While allowing a certain amount of threes can be a solid defensive gamble, it simply has not paid off for Memphis this year. Only the Bulls and Pelicans allow more opponent 3-point attempts, per Cleaning the Glass, but the Grizzlies allow by far the highest percentage from deep at a staggering 40.9%. 

Much of that is variance, but the fact remains they don’t have a great answer for KAT if they want to contest his shot and still wall off the rim.

Karl-Anthony Towns prop: Over 1.5 made threes (-150 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: French connection

It’s hard to find anything about Victor Wembanyama’s game that hasn’t been scrutinized to death. As a 7-foot-4 alien who's been heralded as a generational prospect, every aspect of his game is either overhyped or undersold. 

But if there is one under-discussed aspect of his game, it’s his passing. His immense height is an obvious boon to his ability to shoot against contests, rebound, and block shots but for a player with his level of feel, it also unlocks a world of playmaking possibilities. 

Victor can — and already does — survey the entire court as an offensive hub. He's already begun coaxing his teammates into making more cuts when he has the ball on the block or up top, feeding them the ball when they make a run at the rim.

Wemby has averaged 3.5 assists over his last eight games and has only had fewer than three twice in that span. If he keeps up this pace, a prop like this at plus money will not last long.

Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 2.5 assists (+115 at SIA)