All 32 NBA teams are in action on the final day of the regular season, but only a handful want to be.
The Eastern Conference playoff picture is written in ink, so there’s very little motivation for good or bad teams in these finales. The Western Conference, however, has a lot of moving parts heading into Sunday’s slate.
Both scenarios can benefit bettors, and I try to unearth those advantageous angles with my best NBA picks and NBA player props for April 13.
Best NBA player props today
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Murray Under 18.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
George 10+ points (-130 at bet365) -
Sabonis Over 13.5 rebounds (+120 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 13
Jamal Murray Under 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Denver Nuggets haven't secured their postseason position and could finish with the No. 4 spot with a win over the Houston Rockets, who are locked into the No. 2 spot regardless of today’s outcome.
Houston head coach Ime Udoka has talked about balancing rest vs. rust and could let his starters play a bit in this finale (none of those players are on the injury report). However, it would seem careless to risk those key rotation pieces in a full 48 minutes, and I expect the Rockets to rest their starters after halftime.
After sitting out six games, Jamal Murray just returned from a hamstring injury in his last outing. He’s played in just five of Denver’s last 13 contests. While he did log 32 minutes and score 15 points in a vital win over Memphis on Friday, Nuggets interim coach David Adelman won’t hesitate to protect his star point guard should Denver pull away.
Murray’s points prop is at 18.5 Over/Under — a number he would have little trouble topping at full strength in a regular game setting, but the Nuggets don’t need Murray on the floor to pick up this win. They do, however, need him healthy for the playoffs.
Plenty of projection models are washing their hands of the final day of the regular season, but those available forecasts call for between 19 and 21 points and 34 to 36 minutes of floor time from Murray. I don’t see him playing that much, especially if the Rockets half-ass it... which they will.
Kyshawn George 10+ points (-130 at bet365)
The Washington Wizards have nothing to play for in this finale. They don’t even have anything “not” to play for either, after clinching one of three top chances to win the upcoming NBA Lottery (and a shot at drafting Cooper Flagg). In this zero-risk environment, expect Washington’s remaining players to dance like no one’s looking. That means plenty of shot attempts from guys like Kyshawn George.
George is already taking advantage of these meaningless games, shooting 15 3-point attempts over the past two outings. He’s made five of those looks from long range with scoring outputs of 11 and 13 points.
He’s scored in double figures in nine of the last 14 games, with two other outings finishing at nine points. Today’s matchup with the Miami Heat won’t provide much push back against George and the Wiz.
The Heat are 10th in the East and locked into the Play-In Round. They’re coming off a big 153-104 win over New Orleans on Friday, and the injury report has just about every main rotation player sitting out for Miami.
As mentioned, player projections are wonky for the final day of the regular season, but those available models all call for 10+ points from George. I'm betting the safer option of 10+ points from George at -130, but wouldn't say no to a flyer for 15+ points at +310.
Domantas Sabonis Over 13.5 rebounds (+120 at bet365)
The Sacramento Kings need a win today to secure home court for the opening Play-In Round. Luckily, the Phoenix Suns won’t get in their way.
Phoenix is counting down the seconds to the end of a disappointing season and won’t have any stars on the floor for the finale. That leaves the Suns with a bunch of jobbers in the lineup, which has been ugly to watch in the home stretch.
Phoenix is averaging less than 108 points over its previous 10 games, shooting just 45.7% from the floor, including 34% from beyond the arc. All those misses add up, presenting plenty of rebound chances for Sacramento big Domantas Sabonis. He's been extra active on the glass in recent contests, hauling in more than 14 rebounds per game over his last 11 showings. The 7-footer had 16 boards in a loss to the Clippers on Friday.
Sabonis’ rebounding totals have ranged from 12.5 to 14.5 boards in the last nine games, and he’s gone Over those expectations in six of those showings. Today’s player projections range from 13 rebounds to 15.5 for Sabonis, giving some solid value to his Over 13.5 rebounds, which is paying +120.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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