Today’s NBA schedule is loaded with great matchups, with the pinnacle being Jayson Tatum and the reigning champion Boston Celtics visiting LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
With a game featuring so many stars, you know I’ve got a player prop for it. It’s just not who you might expect.
Here are my NBA picks, for Thursday, January 23, including looks at Bam Adebayo and Kawhi Leonard.
Best NBA player props today
Adebayo double-double (+200 at bet365) 
Finney-Smith Over 5.5 points (-130 at bet365) 
Leonard 20+ points (+195 at bet365)
NBA player props for January 23
Bam Adebayo double-double (+200 at bet365)
The Miami Heat and Jimmy Butler continue to be a circus this season. But if there is one guy who keeps grinding out games and embodies "Heat Culture," it’s Bam Adebayo.
The three-time All-Star is having another solid season despite the tumultuous circumstances surrounding the team. Adebayo is averaging 15.6 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. And with Butler mostly out of the lineup for the past several weeks, Bam is doing his best to keep Miami's ship afloat.
Adebayo is doing that by doing what he does best. Everything. Butler has played less than half of the Heat’s games since December 1, and all Adebayo has done is average 15.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.3 assists over that span (24 games). He also has 13 double-doubles during that period and I like him to keep stuffing the stat sheet in tonight’s matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.
When Adebayo misses double-doubles, it is generally with rebounds. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Bucks. While Milwaukee has a great rebounder in Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks aren’t an elite rebounding team.
Milwaukee ranks 18th in rebounding rate and 20th in opponent rebounds per game. And with its high tempo, it creates more possessions. If Adebayo can get to 10 boards in this matchup, a double-double feels pretty close to a lock. And the 2-to-1 payday is the cherry on top.
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 5.5 Points (-130 at bet365)
The most storied rivalry in basketball writes another chapter tonight as the Los Angeles Lakers host the Boston Celtics.
It’s a matchup filled with stars. LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis and Jaylen Brown. So, yeah, I'm focusing on a Dorian Finney-Smith player prop.
The Lakers acquired Finney-Smith from the Brooklyn Nets at the end of December, and after a few games to get acclimatized with his new teammates, DFS is starting to carve out his role.
Finney-Smith is logging nearly 24 minutes per game putting up 8.7 points while shooting 54.4% from the floor, including 48% from 3-point range over his last six games. He has also put up at least eight points in five of those games.
But it appears that sportsbooks haven’t picked up on his expanded role yet, setting his point total at 5.5 points tonight. Yes, it’s against the Celtics, but DFS will get a lot of his run against the C’s bench, and we’ve seen Boston’s perimeter defense slip a bit in 2025, ranking 14th in opponent 3-point attempts and 11th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Finney-Smith sitting at 7.9 points for this matchup so, I’ll happily take the Over 5.5.
Kawhi Leonard 20+ Points (+195 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Clippers are still easing Kawhi Leonard back into game action. The two-time NBA Finals MVP has only played five games this season and has sat out the last two but tonight’s matchup against the lowly Washington Wizards is a great opportunity for Leonard to log some low-stress minutes.
The Wizards are in the driver's seat in the Capture the Flagg sweepstakes with a 6-36 record. That’s four fewer wins than the next closest team.
Not surprisingly, the Wizards are wandless on defense. Washington ranks dead last in defensive rating, 25th in opponent-effective field-goal percentage, and is lacking in players who can guard a guy like Kawhi, even if he isn’t 100%.
Even in his current state, Leonard is starting to find his shooting rhythm. Leonard went 8-for-11 from the floor for 23 points against Brooklyn and followed that up by going 9-for-13 for 19 in his latest game vs. the Lakers, averaging about 24 minutes in both of those games.
Being able to recreate a performance like that against this Wizards defense shouldn’t be too hard for Leonard. Yet, he’s got a point total of 16.5 for this matchup.
But I’m not just going with the Over. I’m getting greedy and taking Kawhi’s alt-point prop of 20+ at +195, which is supported even further by our Covers Prop Projections which has him getting 19 points tonight.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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