It’s a light night of NBA action with just five games on the schedule, but there is still plenty of basketball betting value to be found in the NBA player prop market.
I’m going to continue to fade the Wizards on the glass, Austin Reaves’ point total is elevated with LeBron James sidelined, and sportsbooks are undervaluing Cole Anthony in a juicy matchup against the Pelicans.
Here are my NBA picks for Thursday, March 13.
Best NBA player props today
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Stewart o5.5 rebs (-115 at bet365) -
Reaves u23.5 pts (-115 at bet365) -
Anthony o12.5 pts (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 13
Isaiah Stewart Over 5.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
The Detroit Pistons continue their impressive ascension up the Eastern Conference standings. The Pistons have won 12 of their last 15 games straight up to now sit in sixth place in the East and they should improve on that when they host the lowly Washington Wizards for the second straight game as 14-point favorites on Thursday night.
The Wizards are somewhat shockingly 4-4 SU in their last eight games, but matchups with the Raptors, Jazz, and Hornets help that out quite a bit. Plus, they two just faced off on Tuesday night with the Pistons cruising to a 123-103 win, with Detroit easily covering the 15-point chalk.
Now, there are plenty of reasons the Wizards have the NBA’s worst record. One of those reasons is their presence on the boards. Or lack thereof. So, we’re fading the Wiz on the glass in this one.
Washington owns the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA but, it’s more than just bad rebounding. The Wizards take the 11th most shots per game with the third-worst effective field goal percentage. So, that means there are a lot of boards up for grabs.
That has me looking at the Pistons’ hype man off the bench, Isaiah Stewart. The 23-year-old is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game this season. He’ll also likely have the opportunity for more minutes in a game that has a good chance to be a blowout. Just like he did last game when he hauled down seven boards.
Stewart’s rebounding prop for this one is sitting at 5.5. He’s gone Over that number in three of his last four games. I’m betting he makes it four of five tonight.
Austin Reaves Under 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
One of the most intriguing matchups on the NBA schedule on Thursday night takes place in the Midwest where Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will play host to Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Yes, this is Luka’s team now. Whether or not LeBron James is hurt. Which he is at the moment. LeBron will miss at least a few more games with a groin injury. That means point props for Luka and his Lakers teammates will be elevated for the next little while and in the case of Austin Reaves it may be elevated a bit too much.
The Lakers’ shooting guard is having a solid season, averaging 18.8 points while shooting 36% from 3-point range, but he’s hit a bit of a slump. He’s putting up just 16.5 points while shooting a miserable 30.8% from the floor over the last three games and he didn’t take advantage of the opportunity with LeBron out last game against the Brooklyn Nets.
Reaves’ points prop was set at 22.5 and he ended with 17 points on 3-of-14 shooting with the majority of those points coming on 11 free throw attempts.
For tonight’s matchup against the Bucks, his point total is sitting even higher at 23.5 points, and I don’t entirely get it. Milwaukee has quietly been solid at the defensive end of the floor and is a much better defensive team than the Nets.
If you haven’t been paying attention, the Bucks enter this game ranked 10th in defensive rating and fifth in opponent effective field goal percentage. So, this isn’t exactly the matchup I would peg Reaves to bust out of this slump.
I’ll happily take the Under 23.5, a number he has played below in 10 of his last 11 games overall.
Cole Anthony Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The Orlando Magic have lost some of their sparkle since the All-Star break. They have lost six of their last seven overall, going 1-6 against the spread in the process but they’ll have a chance to turn things around when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night.
The Pelicans are coming off an impressive win over the Los Angeles Clippers, but are still 2-5 SU/ATS in their last seven games overall, and while a win like that every now and then is nice, this team is focused on lottery balls and on of the top picks in the upcoming NBA Draft.
They certainly aren’t focused on preventing buckets. New Orleans enters this matchup ranked dead last in defensive rating and 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Pels also surrender the second-most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
That has me looking at Cole Anthony’s point props. The Magic guard’s overall stats this season aren’t all that inspiring as he is putting up 9.7 points while shooting 34.9% from 3-point range. However, Anthony seems to improve the more time he spends on the court.
Anthony has started 22 of 27 games since Jan. 5 and is averaging 13.9 points per game while shooting a much more efficient 39.1% from 3-point range.
Now, Anthony is a streaky shooter, but a point total of 12.5 is ripe for the picking in this matchup. He’s put up 20-plus points in two of his last three games and gone Over this number 14 times in his last 26 games.
I’m taking the Over 12.5 points today, but his alternate points of 15+ at +160 is tempting, particularly considering our Covers Prop Projections have him marked down for 15.2 points in this matchup.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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