Who else is excited about tonight’s tank-off between the Utah Jazz and the Washington Wizards? Yes, the Wiz will be favored for the first time all year, but they still stink and we’ll need NBA player props to enjoy this chaos.
Plus, I fade the disaster that is the Dallas Mavericks, and the Grizzlies slump continues with my NBA picks for Wednesday, March 5.
Best NBA player props today
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Filipowski Over 1.5 threes (+100 at bet365) -
Kuzma Over 7.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365) -
Bane Under 23.5 points (-110 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 5
Kyle Filipowski Over 1.5 threes (+100 at bet365)
I'm secretly excited for tonight’s tank-off between the 15-46 Utah Jazz and the 11-49 Washington Wizards. It's just chaotic betting fun. It's also the first time the Wizards will be favored this season, laying 5.5 points at home tonight.
That’s partly because the Jazz are doing their best to close the gap with the Wizards, who currently own the NBA’s worst record and will have the best NBA odds of earning the top pick in this year’s loaded NBA Draft. Every impact player for the Jazz is out again: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Walker Kessler, and Collin Sexton.
However, I’m not sure the Jazz were prepared to deal with the breakout of rookie Kyle Filipowski. The Duke product has been thrust into more minutes and to be fair, he’s thrived. Filipowski is averaging more than 24 minutes per game over the last eight games, averaging 14.6 points, and is coming off a career-high 25 points in the Jazz’s last game against the Pistons.
He’s also shown off an impressive shooting touch, hitting 55.9% of his 3-point attempts during that period. Filipowski has hit multiple threes in six of those eight games and has a great chance to keep that up tonight.
The Wizards are favored, but they’re still bad at basically everything, including perimeter defense. Washington enters this matchup with the third-worst defensive rating, ranking 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and allowing the fourth-most 3-point makes per game in the NBA.
Somebody has to and will get some buckets against the Wizards tonight — and I like Filipowski to contribute with the 3-ball.
Kyle Kuzma Over 7.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
It’s almost comedic how much of a disaster this Dallas Mavericks season has become. Unless you're a Mavs fan, then I’m truly sorry.
The Mavericks’ injury report heading into tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks is horrific. Not only are Kyrie and AD out, but Derek Lively, Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, and Dante Exum are also out.
This hurts the Mavs in many ways, but I'll be fading them on the glass with AD, Lively, Gafford, and Washington all out.
Dallas was already a sub-par rebounding team, ranking 20th in rebounding rate and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game. On top of that, they’ve lost by far and away their most efficient shooter in Irving. The Mavs will put up a lot of bricks going against a Bucks team that ranks 10th in defensive rating and third in opponent effective field goal percentage.
That should mean plenty of rebounds up for grabs for Bucks players. That has me looking at the rebounding prop for Kyle Kuzma.
He's averaged 7.7 rebounds per game in the 11 games since getting traded to Milwaukee and he’s hauled down 8+ boards six times over that stretch, including the last three games in a row. That includes a matchup against this same Mavs team where he grabbed eight rebounds in Dallas on March 1.
Kuzma’s rebounding total for this one is 7.5 with the Over giving us plus money. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger.
Desmond Bane Under 23.5 points (-110 at bet365)
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a slump. They've lost six of their last eight games, including the last three in a row, and it could be worse before it gets better as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder come to town.
The Thunder aren’t just one of the best teams in the NBA, they've also beaten the Grizzlies in seven straight meetings with a 6-1 ATS mark in those games. So, don’t be shocked I found a way to fade the Grizz tonight.
While Desmond Bane isn’t the reason why the Grizzlies have lost the last three games, his recent streak is creating some value for us. He's averaging 28 points per game over his last three, which includes going for 35 in his last outing against the Hawks, but even his recent uptick hasn’t come via perimeter shooting, hitting just 28.6% of his attempts during this stretch.
Now, Bane has to contend with one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. OKC enters this matchup leading the NBA in defensive rating and opponent effective field goal percentage.
On top of that, he's averaging just 19.8 points per game in the 15 games before this little hot streak, going Over 23.5 points just twice over that stretch. He scored 20 and 22 points in two matchups against the Thunder this season.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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