Raptors vs 76ers Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Sixers Roll Raps in High-Scoring Showdown

The Raptors ride momentum into Philadelphia to take on familiar foes in Joel Embiid and the 76ers. Can Toronto exorcise its Game 1 demons or will the Sixers lay the groundwork to exact revenge for the 2019 postseason? Let's dive in with our betting picks.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 16, 2022 • 15:01 ET • 4 min read
Pascal Siakam Toronto Raptors Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers NBA Playoffs
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The sexy sleeper pick for the opening round of the NBA Playoffs is for the Toronto Raptors to upset the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The matchup warrants a closer look, as Toronto did defeat Philadelphia in three of their four meetings this season, most recently a 119-114 victory at home on April 7. Add in the Raptors’ transition attack poking at Philly’s defensive soft spots and that defense missing standout Matisse Thybulle for trips to Toronto, and you can understand why basketball bettors are skeptical of the Sixers.

We put those prognostications to the test with our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors at 76ers Game 1 on April 16.

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Raptors vs 76ers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Philadelphia opened as a 5-point home favorite and has slipped to as low as -4 before buyback on the home team ticked the line up to -4.5. The total hit the board at 217.5 and dropped as low as 216.5 before coming back up to a market consensus of 217 as of Wednesday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs 76ers predictions

Predictions made on 4/13/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Raptors vs 76ers game info

Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Raptors vs 76ers series odds

Raptors: +150
76ers: -178

Raptors vs 76ers betting preview

Key injuries

Raptors: None.
76ers: Paul Millsap F (Probable), Georges Niang C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Toronto is 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS as a franchise in Game 1 of the playoff series. The Raptors went 2-2 SU and ATS in Game 1’s of their magical title run with Kawhi Leonard in 2019. Just sayin’. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.

Raptors vs 76ers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Thybulle controversy has been one of the more talked about wrinkles of this series, but the Sixers will have the services of their top defender for Saturday’s postseason opener at home. And they’ll need him. The 6-foot-5 shooting guard is vital to slowing up a Toronto offense that thrives in transition, with athletic players who can run the floor.

While Thybulle’s disruptive defense is part of the puzzle, the biggest piece for Philadelphia is exploiting its massive advantage inside. Center Joel Embiid can piggyback on his scoring title and have a huge series against an undersized Raptors frontcourt. 

Embiid bullied the Raptors around the rim in the regular season, averaging 29 points and 11 rebounds in three games versus Toronto. And even when he wasn’t having great shooting success, he was picking up points at the foul line, like that most recent clash with the Raps.

The Raptors really have to pick their poison when it comes to checking Embiid and the Sixers. If the 76ers center dominates inside and shoots high-percentage shots, it works against Toronto’s transition approach on offense — having to inbound the ball on most possessions, slowing down the game, and allowing the Sixers to get set on defense.

If you toss double teams — and probably even triple teams — at Embiid in the blocks, you run the risk of getting blasted by the 76ers’ other offensive threats, namely James Harden. Harden has been lambasted the past few weeks for his inconsistent efforts, including a 3-for-12 shooting performance in that last meeting with Toronto. 

I’m going to give the former MVP the benefit of the doubt, at least in Game 1 at home, and praise Philadelphia’s supporting players as well. Speedster Tyrese Maxey has thrived against Toronto, averaging almost 20 points over his four outings versus the Raps. 

He and Harden have given the Sixers’ scoring portfolio a new page with a tough transition attack of their own, folding in a dependent third option on offense. Philadelphia can beat you in the halfcourt anchored by Embiid, break you down in isolation with Harden, and put you on your heels by pushing the pace.

Game 1 is not normally a high-pressure situation for home favorites in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Sixers are really feeling the squeeze considering the season series, Thybulle’s half-vax status keeping him out of Canada, and every talking head picking Toronto to win. 

I like the Sixers to shut all that chatter down on Saturday… or at least until Game 2.

Prediction: 76ers -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, the 76ers may have their way on offense if they play this one right and Harden shows up.

There’s no scenario in which Toronto stops Embiid with their current frontcourt and attempting to do so means throwing multiple bodies at the big man and playing him physically, hoping the refs put the whistles away in the playoffs. 

Embiid made 31 of 37 free throws in his three contests with the Raptors this season and scoring from the line — most notably scoring with the clock stopped — would help pull the plug on Toronto’s transition the other way.

The Raptors will still have their opportunities to run, especially if the Sixers' support staff can’t connect from outside and leaves long rebounds up for grabs. Toronto owns the fifth-highest transition frequency in the league, averaging 22.5 points per game in those playsets. 

Philadelphia’s defense, on the other hand, has been bowled over by tempo attack, allowing the highest-scoring frequency in the league to transition. Many of Toronto’s transition series end in 3-pointers, which has been the team’s calling card for a while.

The Raptors were 15-for-33 from distance in April’s win inside the Wells Fargo Center and Toronto has shot well from outside against the 76ers, connecting on better than 38% of those long-range looks for an average of almost 13 triples per contest — a tick up from the Raps' regular season shooting of 34.9% and 11.9 made 3-pointers per contest.

These Atlantic Division foes went Over the total in three of their four matchups this season and Saturday’s total feels low considering the scoring from the foul line, the potential tempo, and the Sixers' offensive options.

Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The Raptors roll into the postseason with a lot of momentum, having won 14 of their last 18 games. The offense has seen the most significant jump in this span, with Toronto’s advanced rating jumping from 111.0 to 116.3.

Toronto averaged more than 113 points per game during that home stretch, on the back of improved play from Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and first-year forward Scottie Barnes, who blew through the rookie wall like the Kool-Aid Man.

We mentioned Philadelphia’s problems putting the breaks on transition teams and we’ve also noted Toronto’s uptick in 3-point success against the Sixers: two factors that should help the Raptors to continue putting up points. 

More points than the 76ers? Maybe. More points than their 106.5-point team total. Oh hell yes. 

Toronto has posted 107 or more points in 12 of those past 18 games and did so with Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby in and out of the lineup. On the flip side, since acquiring Harden, the Sixers have checked opponents to 106 points or less in just 10 of 24 contests.

Pick: Raptors Over Team Total 106.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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