Playoff games are always “must-win” but Game 5 of the Philadelphia 76ers’ opening-round series with the Toronto Raptors carries a lot of extra weight, even with the Sixers holding a 3-1 lead.
Philadelphia is back home as lofty home chalk but feeling the effects of a physical series with the scrappy Raptors. Namely, MVP candidate Joel Embiid is battling through knee soreness and an injured thumb that will eventually require surgery. Toronto was able to stay alive with a Game 4 win and another victory tonight would make things very uncomfortable for Philly.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors at 76ers on April 25.
Raptors vs 76ers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Philadelphia opened as big as 8-point home chalk for Game 5 and has slimmed a touch to -7.5. The total hit the board at 210 points and dropped briefly to 209.5 before coming back to its original number. With the news that Toronto guard Fred VanVleet would sit out with a hip injury, the Raptors bumped back to +8 by late Monday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Raptors vs 76ers predictions
Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raptors vs 76ers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV
Raptors vs 76ers series odds
Raptors: +1,700
76ers: -5,000
Raptors vs 76ers betting preview
Key injuries
Raptors: Fred VanVleet G (Out).
76ers: Charles Bassey C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in the 76ers' last seven games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.
Raptors vs 76ers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Raptors struggled to slow down the Sixers in the opening two games of the series but found their defensive form north of the border, flipping Philadelphia’s offensive rating from 135.8 to 106.7 in Games 3 and 4.
Can that defensive intensity travel for Game 5? The focal point of Toronto’s efforts should be targeting the Sixers’ support players, a strategy that produced results in those last two contests.
Embiid has proved nearly unstoppable (save for his own ailments doing their part) and the Raps did a fine job putting the breaks on guys like Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris in the past two outings. Toronto’s length on the perimeter has also checked James Harden to less than 38% shooting from the floor for the series, including a 5-for-17 performance in Game 4.
Playing without VanVleet’s steady hand and playoff experience is a knock for Toronto but without him, the Raptors roll out a longer and more athletic lineup, with 6-foot-7 Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes and 6-foot-5 Gary Trent Jr. seeing more floor time. That added length is a big plus on defense.
The Raptors couldn’t buy a turnover in the opening two games but caught on to the 76ers’ sets in Toronto, generating 22 turnovers in Game 3 and 15 in Game 4. Those errors translated into a grand total of 49 points.
Transition is Philadelphia’s kryptonite. The Sixers ranked 30th in opponent scoring frequency during the regular season, but the team has done a solid job slowing down Toronto’s tendencies to push the basketball — until Game 4, that is.
With defensive stopper Matisse Thybulle back in action at home, the Sixers do have fresh legs and match up better against Toronto. But the Raptors aren’t going down without a fight and this spread seems too long considering the pro-Dinosaur narrative heading into the series and the results of the past two games.
Prediction: Raptors +8 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
We mentioned the Raptors picking up the pace last time out. With VanVleet leaving due to a hip injury in the first half, Toronto went from a pace rating of 94.0 in the first two quarters to 104.0 in the final 24 minutes.
The quick length from Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Thaddeus Young, Barnes, and Trent helped cooked up nine steals and kick-started the Raps’ stagnant transition attack. With Philadelphia back home, those mistakes will get mopped up and Toronto won’t have as many of those easy fastbreak buckets. But that ability to create those "turn and burn" possessions is there.
VanVleet’s absence takes away Toronto’s one solid 3-point shooting threat and we’ll see a bigger Raptors team look to be aggressive and attack inside — much as they did in Game 4 by drawing 26 personal fouls and shooting 28-for-35 from the free-throw line.
That approach may work to the Raptors’ advantage again, considering the referee crew for Game 5. The officiating trio of John Goble, James Williams, and Tre Maddox all rank Top 11 in fouls per game.
That crew should also make the Sixers smile, with Embiid voicing his displeasure with the foul calls in Game 4 by “golf clapping” and Harden a master at drawing whistles. On top of those points scored with the clock stopped, the 76ers' shooting success from long range should stay hot with the move back home where they hit 48% from deep in the first two games.
Prediction: Over 209.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
With VanVleet out of action in this do-or-die game, the fate of Toronto’s season swings to Pascal Siakam's shoulders.
Siakam poured in 34 points in Game 4, scoring 13 from the charity stripe. Siakam is averaging 22.5 points for the series, getting to the line almost seven times per contest and shooting 68% on those freebies. If tonight's officials live up to their season-long stats, Siakam should see a surplus of shots from the stripe.
The 6-foot-8 small forward is putting up more than 18 field goal attempts per contest in the playoffs and will get more touches with VanVleet sidelined and with Barnes and Trent sharing ball-handling duties.
Before this series, Siakam was a Sixers slayer, posting point totals of 37, 26, 28, and 26 in four regular-season matchups with Philadelphia. His point prop is jumping with the news of VanVleet’s absence but you can still get it at Over 23.5 (-122).
Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 23.5 points (-122 at BetRivers)
