With some troubling early signs brewing, the Denver Nuggets are still looking for their first win of the season as they visit the Toronto Raptors tonight.
Denver’s shaky supporting cast is quickly becoming a storyline after an 0-2 start, but my Nuggets vs. Raptors predictions suggest a backlash from the visitors here, with Nikola Jokic factoring heavily into my top NBA picks for this October 28 matchup.
Raptors vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Nuggets -7.5 (-120 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
The Denver Nuggets arrive at Scotiabank Arena with a clear talent edge over the rebuilding Toronto Raptors and, just as importantly, there’s real urgency for Denver to kickstart its season.
That’s a formula for the visitors to take off. I expect a ruthless, focused performance from the Nuggets, and I’m taking them to cover this spread against a Toronto team that’s clearly prioritizing player development.
The biggest question mark for Denver is bench production. The Russell Westbrook gamble is off to a rough start and Michael Malone has had no choice but to hand minutes to unproven reserves so far this year.
The good news for the Nuggets tonight is that Toronto is experimenting with a rookie-laden second unit, and the Raptors’ bench isn’t likely to exploit Denver like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers did last week.
With Nikola Jokic coming off a 41-point outburst against the Clippers, including a career-high seven 3-pointers, and Jamal Murray seeming more like himself with a 22-point effort, I see the visitors getting off to a fast start.
Denver should also be well-placed to cash in on a turnover-prone Toronto rotation (46 turnovers in the past two games) that’s missing Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown and is likely to be without Immanuel Quickley again tonight, too.
The Nuggets have won five of the past seven meetings between these teams, and I’m wagering on a comfortable road victory here.
Raptors vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Nuggets -7.5
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists
Scottie Barnes Under 20.5 points
I’m doubling down on an efficient night for the Denver offense by adding the Over on Jokic’s assists prop for my SGP.
It’s too much to ask Jakob Poeltl or Chris Boucher to guard Jokic straight up, so it’s inevitable that the Raptors will need to send double teams when Joker sets up on the block — and that should mean open looks for the team’s best shooters, Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Jokic had 13 dimes in the season opener, and the stage is set for another double-digit assist night, even if the second unit’s streaky shooting continues. Plus, I don’t foresee a repeat of the 26 field goal attempts Joker hoisted on Saturday.
I’m also grabbing a Scottie Barnes prop. Barnes has been given the keys to the Toronto offense but he looked too passive at times in the first week when the Raptors needed him to fill the void left by the injuries to Quickley and R.J. Barrett.
Though he’s capable of muscling his way to the rim against most wing defenders, Barnes has been held to 20 points or fewer in two of his three outings so far, including a nine-point dud in the season opener.
That’s leading me to the Under on his points prop here. Barnes is walking into a tough matchup against Aaron Gordon, and Barrett’s possible return from a shoulder issue could also take a few touches away from him.
There’s also blowout potential with this clash, which could put a dent in Barnes’ minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Nuggets odds
Raptors vs Nuggets live odds
Get the latest Raptors vs Nuggets NBA odds.
Raptors vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +7.5 | Denver -7.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +277 | Denver -325
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
Raptors vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors are sizeable home underdogs tonight and they’ve lost six of their last seven games dating back to last season.
- This is the Nuggets’ first road outing of the new season, and they went 24-17 on their travels in the 2023-24 campaign.
- Denver won 113-104 in Toronto last year, seeing the Under cash, but the Over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- Even with Jokic’s elite playmaking, the 4Q Under is 52-34 in the Nuggets’ last 86 contests.
Raptors vs Nuggets trend
Despite the Raptors’ inconsistent offense, the Over has been a winning ticket in each of their last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Nuggets.
Raptors vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 10-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Raptors vs Nuggets latest injuries
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