Raptors vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Lack of 3-point Threats Make Under Appealing On Friday

The Toronto Raptors' six-game road trip will come to a close with a visit to Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers on Friday night.

Toronto enters the Gainbridge Fieldhouse coming off its highest-scoring game of the season, continuing a string of Overs, but is a 4-point NBA betting underdog against Indiana — who is not likely to oblige in the Raps' recent high-scoring ways, as the total is set at 211.

Here are our best free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Pacers on Friday, November 26.

Raptors vs Pacers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line was not available at all sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon, but some operators had posted Indiana -4 with a total of 211. As of Friday morning that line had settled across operators at Pacers -3.5 and a total of 213.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Pacers predictions

• Prediction: Raptors +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Myles Turner Over 2.5 blocks (-135)

Predictions made on 11/25/2021 at 3:14 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Pacers game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSIN, TSN

Raptors vs Pacers betting preview

Injuries

Raptors: OG Anunoby F (Questionable), Khem Birch C (Questionable).
Pacers: T.J. Warren F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Indiana. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Pacers.

Raptors vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

To say it's been a struggle for Toronto lately is an understatement. The Raps are 3-7 SU and ATS over their last 10 games, with the three wins coming against less-than-impressive opponents: Philadelphia (sans Joel Embiid), Sacramento (fired its coach days later), and Memphis last night (.500 team, but does not know the definition of defense).

That most recent win over Memphis, on Wednesday night, was also Toronto's second-highest combined total of the year, which has highlighted another issue for the Raps: A defense that has stopped, well, defending. After giving up 100 points or fewer in five of their first nine games (100.2 points per game average), the Raptors have now given up 111.6 ppg over their last 10 contests — allowing 101 or more in nine of them.

The biggest culprit has been defending the three, as during this 10-game span, Toronto is giving up more than two additional 3-pointers per game and opponents are shooting 38.4 percent from deep (up from 34.3 percent in the opening nine games).

Luckily for Toronto, the Pacers have been a pretty mediocre 3-point shooting team in November (17th in 3PA/game, 18th in percentage), which stays in line with Indiana being a pretty mediocre team overall.

Indy is 14th in both points for and against, 13th in defensive rating, 16th in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage, and 13th in opponent field-goal percentage. The result is an 8-12 SU (10-10 ATS) team overall, but the Pacers are just 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, including an OT loss to the Lakers in their last appearance.

While neither team has really stood out in any facet recently, Toronto did display its trademark defense in the second half of the win over Memphis, giving up just 42 points against one of the league's most potent offenses. That's at least something this young squad can carry over into Friday's game.

Also worth noting is Toronto is 2-0 SU and ATS already against Indiana this season — why not make it a perfect 3-0? We'll take the Raps getting points.

Prediction: Raptors +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Raptors defense has declined lately, which has led to the Over cashing in six of their last seven contests, but we're still looking at the Under for this game.

As mentioned above, a primary culprit for Toronto has been a struggle to defend the three-ball, but Indiana as a team isn't really a big threat to go bombs away. It also works the other way as well, as Indy's biggest deficiency is also preventing treys from falling — the Pacers are 26th in opponent three-point percentage — but the Raptors have attempted the fifth-fewest 3-pointers in November.

So, if we're looking at a game with more interior scoring, don't bank on the Raptors piling on the points there either, as Myles Turner is one of the best (if not the best) interior defenders in the league, blocking nearly 10 percent of opponent's shots, while the Pacers are 10 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court (per The Athletic).

The Raptors also seemed to have regained their defensive mojo against Memphis, so let's bet on this not being a Friday night shootout.

Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110)

Best bet

We touched above that Myles Turner is a nightmare for opposing offenses and blocks a ton of shots (his 3.0 per game is tried for best in the NBA).

Well, guess what? In addition to the Raptors not being a high-volume 3-point shooting team (meaning they take more inside looks), they also get stuffed.. a lot. Toronto is 26th in the NBA in allowing 6.0 opponent blocks per game, as a team that gets a lot of looks in the paint but doesn't have a dominant post presence, rather relying on a number of athletics wings ranging from 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-9 — and not a single one of them even close to the size of the 6-foot-11, 250-lb Turner.

Turner's block total has a little bit of juice on it, but considering the Raps take the seventh-most shots from five feet or closer in the league — and Turner swats away almost 10 percent of all opponent field goals — we'll pay it for his Over tonight.

Pick: Myles Turner Over 2.5 blocks (-135)

Pages related to this topic