The road hasn’t been kind to the Houston Rockets as they try to avoid a winless 4-game trek with a final stop in Dallas on February 8.
My Rockets vs Mavericks prediction and NBA picks have the home team giving their fans a glimpse of how good this roster is post-Luka, with a big effort Saturday afternoon from American Airlines Center.
Rockets vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Pick (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Rockets entered this road trip having not dropped three in a row all season. However, they have now dropped five straight after getting clubbed 127-114 in Minnesota.
That’s the third time in five games the Rockets’ defense has been shredded for at least 120 points. Houston has allowed teams to shoot 49.2% from the field during this skid, a big reason why it's allowing a massive 63.6 points in the paint over its last five — the only team in the NBA touching the 60-point plateau.
The Rockets are still not whole, either. Trade deadline pickup Cody Zeller (personal) will not play, and neither will fellow big Jabari Smith Jr, who has a broken hand. Fred VanVleet (ankle) is also sitting this one out.
The Dallas Mavericks finally shook the post-Luka funk with a 127-120 win in Boston, bookending their five-game road trip with wins to finish 2-3. Defense has been a problem three games without Luka, as the Mavs have allowed an average of 127.3 points over that stretch.
Anthony Davis should be a massive help to those woes, as he’s undoubtedly a Top-5 defender in the NBA. As he did in L.A., he’ll be covering up a lot of mistakes Dallas makes on its end, which should prop up the unit.
But two-way play is his specialty, and his work in and around the midrange to the bucket will be a regular source of offensive stability, taking pressure off Kyrie Irving and opening up major shooting lanes for the likes of Klay Thompson along the perimeter.
Dallas’ frontcourt is really dinged up, with Dereck Lively II (ankle) still weeks away from seeing the court, while Dwight Powell (hip) is also out. Newly acquired wing Caleb Martin (hip) will also be sidelined.
The Rockets have won both matchups with the Mavericks this year, but the circumstances are wildly different this time around.
Houston has dropped four straight on the road and will be playing its fourth game in six days. Dallas is 9-7-0 against the spread as a home favorite, one of only eight teams with a success rate better than 50%.
Rockets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Mavericks -5
Anthony Davis Over 23.5 points
Jalen Green Over 2.5 threes
AD knows exactly the situation he’s stepping into, and he can ease Dallas fans’ hurt by being the version of himself that was killing it for the Lakers.
He’s averaging 25.7 points and 11.6 rebounds on the season, both Top 10 marks in the NBA. In Dallas, he’ll also get to play his preferred power position, leaving the banging to big man Daniel Gafford (and Lively when he gets back).
Prior to his ab injury, Davis had a monster 42-point, 23-rebound effort against Charlotte. He’s scored at least 24 points in four straight.
While his shooting splits aren’t great, Jalen Green is still connecting from downtown. Against Minnesota, Green went 3-for-8 from 3-point range, the fourth time in five games he’s hit three or more triples.
Dallas is Bottom 10 in defending the 3-ball, so Green should have plenty of good looks this afternoon.
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Rockets vs Mavericks odds
Rockets vs Mavericks live odds
Rockets vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Houston +4 | Dallas -4
- Moneyline: Houston +145 | Dallas -170
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston is 2-4-0 against the spread in its last six.
- Dallas is 2-1-0 ATS in three games since trading Luka Doncic.
- The Mavericks have gone Over the total in eight of their last nine.
Rockets vs Mavericks trend
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last nine between Houston and Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Rockets vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 2-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network, KFAA |
Rockets vs Mavericks latest injuries
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