The Dallas Mavericks will try to keep their hopes of home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs alive as they host the Houston Rockets on Sunday afternoon.
Houston is on the verge of elimination, sitting four games behind the Warriors for the last position in the play-in tournament. Dallas sits in the fifth seed out west, two games back of the Clippers for the No. 4 spot.
The Mavericks may well rest star Luka Doncic today, but they’re still a formidable squad. We’ll break down how this will impact the NBA odds in our free NBA picks for Rockets vs. Mavericks on April 7.
Rockets vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet: Mavericks -8.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
No team has been hotter down the stretch than the Dallas Mavericks. They've won 13 of their last 15 games and have steadily improved their playoff positioning, moving off the play-in bubble.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been nearly unstoppable over the past month, and while the Mavs aren’t a favorite to go deep in the playoffs, this isn’t a team anyone will be excited about facing in the postseason.
Luka missed Friday’s game against the Warriors with soreness in his right knee. As of midday on Sunday, Dallas still has its superstar listed as questionable for today’s game.
While the knee injury shouldn’t keep Luka out long-term, it’s certainly possible the Mavericks will limit him on Sunday in an effort to let him recover fully by the postseason.
Even if Doncic can’t play, Dallas remains a tough matchup. Irving can easily act as the primary scorer for the Mavericks, as he's done on some nights even with Luka also in the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.9 points per game) and P.J. Washington (12.1 ppg) can also pick up the slack, with Washington scoring 32 points on Friday.
While Houston was recently on an 11-game winning streak that had it dreaming of sneaking into the play-in tournament, those hopes have effectively been dashed by its current four-game losing streak. With the Rockets four games out with five to play, everything would have to break right for them to get their postseason shot.
Houston has a talented young team, with players like Alperen Sengun (21.1 ppg) and Jalen Green (19.9 ppg) looking like future stars who could lead this team to playoff success, but they aren’t quite there yet. That showed in the last meeting between a week ago when Dallas won 125-107 in Houston.
With the Mavericks now at home and still having plenty to play for, they should be able to win this game without much trouble.
Rockets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Mavericks -8.5
Under 226
Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 points
Along with betting on the Mavericks to win going away tonight, I’m backing the Under for my SGP.
Dallas has hit the Under in nine of its last 10 games and has been Under tonight’s total in four of its last five, and Luka’s status has me a little nervous about how much he’ll contribute to the offense.
Those same concerns about Doncic lead me to the final leg. I’m taking Kyrie Irving to go Over his scoring total of 24.5 points. Irving went for 26 points against the Warriors on Friday and has now scored 25+ in four of his last five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockets vs Mavericks odds and trends
Rockets vs Mavericks live odds
Rockets vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Houston +7.5 | Dallas -7.5
- Moneyline: Houston +230 | Dallas -275
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Rockets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks opened today’s game as 7.5-point favorites. The consensus spread is now Dallas -8.5, though some books have stayed at a flat 8 instead.
- Dallas has been good to bettors this season, going 45-32 against the spread. Houston also has a positive 43-33-1 ATS record on the year.
- The total for today’s game opened at 227 points. That number has dropped slightly, with 226 points now being the consensus Over/Under.
- The Rockets have gone 38-38-1 O/U this year while the Under has a 43-34 edge when the Mavericks play this season.
Rockets vs Mavericks trend
The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Mavericks.
Rockets vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, April 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, Space City Home Network |
Not intended for use in MA.
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