Double-digit point spreads are just part of the territory with NBA betting at this time of the year. And when it comes to the Houston Rockets, those beefy spreads have been popping up more and more as we close in on the end of the schedule.
The Rockets are once against getting a truckload of points, this time visiting the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday. Houston could be treading into that rare but always fun spectrum of a team being so bad...that they’re actually a good bet.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Trail Blazers on May 10.
Rockets vs Trail Blazers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis line bounced around a fair amount at TwinSpires, where Portland opened -12.5, stretched to -15.5 and receded to -14, and the number remains -14 at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Trail Blazers are taking 57 percent of bets and 66 percent of cash on the point spread. The total is down a tick, from 239 to 238.5, although the Over is seeing 76 percent of bets/70 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRockets at Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Rockets: Kelly Olynyk C (Questionable), Christian Wood F (Questionable), Avery Bradley G (Out), Sterling Brown G (Out), Eric Gordon G (Out), John Wall G (Out), David Nwaba F (Out), Kevin Porter F (Out).
Trail Blazers: Carmelo Anthony F (Questionable), Zach Collins C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Trail Blazers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Houston has covered in two straight games, thanks to mountainous spreads of +17.5 and +16 points at Milwaukee and Utah respectively, and get another Costco bundle of points in Portland tonight.
The Rockets have only one victory in their last 11 games and own a 3-20 SU mark in their last 23 games overall, including a 1-11 SU record on the road in that span—so those sky-high spreads are warranted. As for measuring up against the spread, the Rockets are 10-13 ATS in that 23-game span but 3-2 ATS when catching 10 or more points from the bookies.
The Blazers are hot in the postseason hunt, winning three straight and seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS) to move up to sixth in the Western Conference standings. They’re just one game back of Dallas for the No. 5 spot and have some huge matchups on the other side of Houston, visiting Utah and Phoenix before closing out the regular season with a home game versus Denver.
Given that upcoming slate and the Rockets’ rotten record, you couldn’t blame the Blazers for looking past Houston and ahead to that daunting home stretch. In their defense, the Rockets aren’t showing any signs of outright tanking and have covered in five of their last six on the road, averaging 114 points in those contests.
This spread is quickly climbing, jumping from Portland -12.5 to -15 with the Blazers still juiced to -115. If you’re rolling the dice on the Rockets like me, wait and see how high spread this goes before buying back on Houston.
PREDICTION: Houston +15 (-110)
Over/Under pick
We know what we’re not going to get from Houston. And that’s defense. The Rockets aren’t going to change their stripes at this point in the season with whatever lineup they roll out tonight.
Houston is giving more than 123 points per game on the road since April and has topped the total in seven of their last eight roadies, thanks in part to that offensive fight as a visitor mentioned above.
The Trail Blazers are far from the defensive elite, ranked second-worst in the NBA’s overall defensive rating (115.2). Portland has clamped down in its last three outings but those came against some feeble offensive foes, reflected in the shorter totals.
In their 20 games with Over/Under numbers of 235 or higher, the Trail Blazers have gone Over in a dozen of those contests.
PREDICTION: Over 238 (-110)
First-quarter prop pick
In losses at Milwaukee and Utah, the Rockets came out swinging with first-quarter point totals of 34 and 32.
On the season, Houston averages 29.8 points in the opening frame per road game and takes on a Blazers defense surrendering 29.6 first-quarter tallies per contest. The Rockets push the tempo in those opening frames, boasting a pace rating of 104.76 in the first 12 minutes—the fourth fastest first-quarter tempo in the NBA.
That explosive start suits Portland just fine. The Blazers open with the bang most nights, scoring 30.9 points per first quarter on the year, the second-highest mark in the league.
PREDICTION: Over 60.5 first quarter (-115)
Rockets vs Trail Blazers betting card
- Houston +15 (-110)
- Over 238 (-110)
- Over 60.5 first quarter (-115)
Picks made on 5/10/2021 at 12:42 p.m. ET
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