The New York Knicks will kick off a fun slate of basketball on Christmas Day, playing host to the San Antonio Spurs as they seek a fifth straight win.
We’ll focus on New York’s strengthening defense in our Spurs vs. Knicks predictions and explain why defensive-minded San Antonio could be in for a world of trouble after running through a soft part of its schedule.
Let’s dig into some NBA picks on Wednesday, December 25, with a noon ET tip on ESPN at Madison Square Garden.
Spurs vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Knicks -9 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Of all the teams the San Antonio Spurs could draw as they look to cement a solid run of form, the New York Knicks have to be one of the last they’d choose.
New York enters atop the league with a 43.4% hit rate from three this month, according to Cleaning the Glass, something that doesn't bode well for a defense that’s struggled to defend the perimeter and ranks just 23rd against the outside shot this month.
The saving grace would be the Knicks have preferred to score at the rim this year, a spot on the floor where San Antonio has shown a great deal of promise, but the unfortunate news is that even if this other-worldly offense cools a bit, things will be tricky on the other end of the court for the visitors.
The Knicks have ratcheted up the defense in December, sitting inside the Top 5 in points allowed per 100 possessions after entering the month in the bottom half of the league. The most notable improvements they’ve made have come at the rim and around the arc — where there’s been a rather drastic turnaround.
New York’s also maintained a Top-10 rebounding unit this month, and with Precious Achiuwa recently making his way back into the rotation, things have only gotten better.
That should help keep the Spurs — struggling for rebounds all year — at bay on the glass as the pace of this game and the performance of this Knicks defense suffocates the upstart side.
The Spurs may have four wins in six games, but they’ve won off the back of their defense — and haven’t stopped an offense nearly of New York’s caliber.
This will be a step up, which San Antonio won’t be able to survive, and while the Under might be a reasonable look here, the Knicks have the potential to get too hot from outside and put it in jeopardy.
Spurs vs Knicks same-game parlay
Knicks -8.5
Julian Champagnie 2+ threes
Miles McBride 2+ threes
We’re going to get a little creative here in our pursuit of a juicy parlay, looking into the lone specific shooting zone that has given the Knicks a bit of an issue.
Despite holding Top-10 marks across the board this month, the Knicks have been failing to close out the corner three and have not only ranked fifth-worst against that shot but have allowed them to come at the 13th-highest rate in the split.
That should mean Julian Champagnie will find himself open to shoot plenty, given he’s led this team in corner three attempts on average. He’s launched from deep over seven times per game, hitting two or more triples in seven of his last eight.
On the other end, we’ll go with Miles McBride — who’s hit two or more times from the arc in three of his last four. We know the Spurs are struggling to defend the three, and with the potential of a blowout I’m hunting down a lower number — and love taking a rotation player who should be blowout-proof and could even see additional action here if the lead is comfortable.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Spurs vs Knicks odds
Spurs vs Knicks live odds
Spurs vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +9.5 (-110) | New York -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Antonio +350 | New York -450
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Spurs vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Knicks dropped to nine-point favorites a week ago, remaining there until the number began bouncing between 9 and 9.5 in the past day.
- 48% of the spread tickets and 59% of the money is on New York to cover.
- The total was hanging around 226 or so for quite some time before taking a nosedive in the past 24 hours, moving as low as 223.5.
- While the Over has accounted for 64% of the bets, the Under makes up 52% of the handle.
Spurs vs Knicks trend
The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 54 games (+17.40 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Knicks.
How to watch Spurs vs Knicks
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Spurs vs Knicks latest injuries
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