The Phoenix Suns were in cruise control. Up 20, at home, and with Kevin Durant at the helm, it seemed they were going to walk into an easy victory over a San Antonio Spurs team a few years away from relevance.
Then turnovers, bad decisions, and some clutch play by Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama turned the game on its head. The Spurs trailed for over 47 minutes and 30 seconds and yet walked away with the one-point victory.
Durant walked off the court in stunned silence as the Suns crowd reeled in shock. But in a schedule quirk, they have an immediate chance to avenge their upset loss on Thursday, November 2. Will the Spurs pull off another NBA odds upset? Or will the Suns get to wash the taste of unexpected defeat from their mouths?
Our NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Suns believe Vassell will continue his breakout season against Phoenix.
Spurs vs Suns odds
Spurs vs Suns predictions
Victor Wembanyama is certain to be the driving force of the San Antonio Spurs' success sooner rather than later, and for a long time, but his teammate Devin Vassell is also on a star trajectory.
Vassell has largely labored in anonymity to begin his career. The Spurs have been bottom-feeders, and not particularly entertaining ones through his first three seasons. He also only played 32 games last season, the first in which he was a consistent starter.
Most casual NBA fans only even learned about Vassell because he inked the richest extension in Spurs history this summer.
But that deal should have been a tell. While the average fan is just getting to know Vassell and his game, the Spurs surely know what they have. And what they have is special.
He showcased it for a national TV audience on Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns. His play keyed in an improbable rally to overcome a 20-point deficit and snatch the smile from the Footprint Center.
What makes Vassell so intriguing is the level of his on-ball craft. He has one of the most underrated handles in the NBA, and it fuels an elite in-between game.
He can gain an advantage over his opponent and dribble comfortably under pressure between the arc and paint, and casually pull up and splash a midrange jumper. Per Cleaning the Glass, he’s hitting 54% of his midrangers to begin the season.
This year, he’s also diversified his outside jumper. He’s taking more threes off the dribble and while stepping back, creating immense gaps of space to shoot against even quality contests. These are the attributes of a primary star guard in the modern NBA. While he needs to improve as a driver and finisher, he’s showcasing growth in that area as well.
With Devin Booker and Bradley Beal still out for the foreseeable future, the Suns are short a guard defender with the goods to hang with Vassell. He’s so crafty using screens and hang dribbles to wrong-foot stronger, slower defenders like Josh Okogie and Phoenix don’t have the kind of quick-twitch dexterous defensive guard to slow him down.
Vassell is averaging 20 points per game on 57.9% effective field goal percentage to start the season. I expect more of the same on Thursday.
My best bet: Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points (-120 at bet365)
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Spurs vs Suns same-game parlay
Vassell Over 17.5 points (-120)
Suns: Race to 10 points (-160)
Over 226 (-105)
In addition to liking Vassell to have a strong follow-up game on Thursday, I’m also a big believer in a strong early push by Phoenix after the disastrous way things ended on Tuesday. To that end, I’m taking the Suns to win the race to the first 10 points. I expect Kevin Durant to make it his mission in life to establish control of this game early.
As for why I’m taking the Over: these teams are still learning how to play together. Several times a game you can see clear communication breakdowns by both squads. A ball sails out of bounds because a pass fails to find its mark or a person rotates out of the corner at the wrong time every quarter.
The stats bear it out too. The Suns and Spurs rank second and third in turnover percentage to begin the season per Cleaning the Glass, and many of those are live ball. That’s one way an offensively challenged Spurs team can do their part towards cashing the Over here, even as their halfcourt offense is a work in progress.
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Spurs vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Spurs at Suns rematch opened between -6.5 and -7 in favor of Phoenix, which is right in line with the line from two days ago. Most oddsmakers have raised that to -7.5, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line rise as high as -8.5 before tip.
Expectations have been San Antonio’s greatest foil to begin the season. This team won 22 games last season, but oddsmakers have been comfortable giving them competitive spreads against contending teams like Phoenix.
As a result, even though they snatched that victory from the Suns, other losses still have them as one of the worst teams in terms of underperforming the spread so far, with a -6.4 spread differential per Cleaning the Glass.
These teams are both 2-2, but are nowhere close in team quality, even with the Suns missing players. Phoenix learned the hard way what happens in the NBA when you play with your food, and even then, it took a series of disasters and bad calls for San Antonio to win last game.
Last game was Phoenix’s lone loss against the spread so far this year, dropping them to 3-1 ATS overall. I’d lean towards them getting revenge and covering.
Thursday’s total came in between 224.5 and 226.5 depending on the sportsbook. That’s since coalesced with most oddsmakers offering it at 225 at time of writing.
The Spurs have been surprisingly frisky on offense despite their flaws, only failing to score 110 points or more in their game against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Over is now 3-1 in Spurs games this season.
Whether you want to credit Frank Vogel, a small sample size, or the collective will of this Suns group, it’s still a shock to see that the Suns are fourth in defensive rating so far this season.
Personally, I believe this is sample size and competition-related. They simply have too many one-way players like Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic to be sustainably good on defense. I like the Over.
Spurs vs Suns betting trend to know
The Suns are 3-1 ATS this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Suns.
Spurs vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, November 2, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBATV |
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