Suns vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Ayton Struggles to Find Rhythm

Two days ago, Donovan Mitchell of the Cleveland Cavaliers became just the seventh player in the history of the NBA to score 70 points or more in a game. Oddly enough, tonight’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns should have featured him playing against the last player to accomplish that feat, Devin Booker. 

Sadly, Booker is sidelined with a groin injury, and in his absence, the Suns have been freefalling. Now, it will take a Herculean effort for Phoenix to avoid losing a fourth straight as their road trip takes them to Ohio on Wednesday, January 4.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Cavaliers believe that Deandre Ayton should struggle against the formidable frontcourt pairing of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Suns vs Cavaliers best odds

Suns vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

The Phoenix Suns desperately need someone on the roster to step up and shoulder some of the scoring and shot creation burden with Devin Booker out of the lineup. But so far, the most likely candidate, former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton has failed to answer the call.

Ayton sometimes gets compared to The Admiral, David Robinson, for his old-school look, but that’s where similarities end. Because although Ayton is 7-foot-1, he’s strictly a finesse player. He finishes the occasional pick-and-roll lob but shies away from contact and rarely scores at the rim. He’s taking just 42% of his shots at the basket, 33rd percentile among all bigs, per Cleaning the Glass, and a disappointing mark for someone of his physical gifts.

Ayton has taken the occasional 3-pointer from above the break this season, but his raison d'etre is to touch the paint, back down his defender, and shoot a hook shot. He’s incredibly efficient on those shots, but he’s also such a one-note offensive player that opposing teams with quality frontcourts can push him off his spots and limit his shot attempts. 

To his credit, Ayton has seen a slight bump in his usage this season, but he’s still treated as a role player in the offense. His 1.38 points per shot attempt are significantly lower than his previous two seasons and he’s also turning the ball over more. He’s shown limited offensive development over the past few seasons, and when things aren’t going right, he has a tendency to disappear into the scenery of a game.

But this bet is as much about Ayton as it is about the Cleveland Cavaliers. In a league increasingly defined by perimeter play, the Cavaliers were one of the first teams to follow in the footsteps of the Milwaukee Bucks’ two-big approach by playing Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley together. The pair has proven a formidable one. Even with no real small forward option and two small guards in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, Cavaliers lineups with both Allen and Mobley have a defensive rating of 110.6, which is just about 80th percentile league-wide.

It’s the combination of the two that should really present problems for Ayton. Allen is the more physically imposing of the pair, who plays the center spot and will match up with DA on most possessions. Allen is strong and savvy enough to keep Ayton from creating easy seals and should force him to take longer, more difficult shots. Ayton then also has to worry about Mobley lurking off ball, and the combined length could force Ayton into turnovers or other wasted possessions.

Ayton was a virtual no-show in his previous two games against the physical frontcourts of the New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors, scoring just 12 and four points respectively. I’m expecting similar results tonight.

My best bet: Deandre Ayton Under 18.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The story of the phoenix — the mythical creature from which the Arizona city takes its name — is about an immortal bird that burns brightly before cyclically combusting, only to rise again from the ashes. Well, it’s safe to say that the Suns are firmly in the “pile of ashes” point of the life cycle at this moment. 

Phoenix is 2-7 without Booker in the lineup this year, and they’ve been largely non-competitive when they play even modestly talented teams. They scored a grand total of 11 points in the first quarter against the New York Knicks in their previous contest and are now 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 road games. Booker is not expected to be back for at least a few weeks, so there’s no bottom to how far this team could fall in the interval.

The Cavaliers have also been dealing with intermittent absences, with Darius Garland and Mobley having both missed the previous two games. With Mobley and Garland expected to play on Wednesday, the Cavs should begin to reverse their recent slip in point differential. Even given Monday night’s heroics, they’ve underperformed the spread by an average of 4.4 points over their last six games. They’ve been consistently good at home though and are now 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. With this line landing somewhere between -4.5 and -5.5 in favor of the Cavaliers, I’d strongly favor Cleveland.

Suns vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

When considering this total, it’s hard to pinpoint whether the Suns' defense or offense is more suspect right now. The Suns are shooting terribly and are well past the point where they’re begun to let their offensive struggles impact their defensive effort. They’re a team loaded with veteran players, so one wouldn’t necessarily expect them to fold this way, but it’s important to emphasize just how beat up they are right now. 

All three of Booker, Cameron Johnson, and Jae Crowder were in their top six in minutes played last season, and they’ve also suffered extended absences by Chris Paul and Cameron Payne as well. At a certain point, a loss of cohesion is to be expected. They’ve found a way to win a few of those shootouts, but rarely have they won with defense. They’ve only held an opposing team under 100 points once in the last 10 games. 

Cleveland has also been struggling defensively of late. It’s played at the level of the league's second-worst defense over the last two weeks per Cleaning the Glass. That’s contributed to the Over cashing in five straight home games and six of the last seven overall.

But the Suns also barely managed to 30 points in a half against the Knicks on Monday. Hard to bet an Over (even at just 221.5) when one of the offenses involved has become that stagnant.

Suns vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers’ last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Cavaliers.

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