Christmas has quite literally come early, as the Denver Nuggets get set to host the Phoenix Suns in a preview of Wednesday’s showcase on national television.
My Suns vs. Nuggets predictions expect Denver to cover as Phoenix still tries to figure things out in Devin Booker's absence.
Here are my NBA picks for Monday, December 23.
Suns vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Nuggets -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When Booker was lost to injury a couple of games ago, it was incredibly clear scoring would be a tough task for the Phoenix Suns. What I wasn’t prepared for, however, was the step back they would take defensively.
The Suns allowed the Detroit Pistons to hang 133 points on them on Saturday, a game in which they gave up 48.7% shooting from outside. What’s concerning is Phoenix has been allowing a ton more shots to come from the arc with Booker off the floor this year, but on the whole, its defensive performance has been considerably better.
Perhaps it was just one game, or maybe Booker’s defense is better than what the numbers lead us to believe... but the fact of the matter is this Suns defense has ranked 27th against the three which spells trouble here.
Phoenix's opponents see an uptick in 3-point frequency by 1.9 percentage points with Booker off the floor, and you don’t want to dare the Denver Nuggets to take more shots from deep since they shoot it at the sixth-best clip in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The Suns have struggled in almost every shooting zone and will head up against the eighth-best offense this month, making for a very tricky proposition. Even if Kevin Durant goes off again, it won’t be enough to overcome the delta here.
Suns vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nuggets -4.5
Kevin Durant Over 31.5 points
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 threes
The first order of business here is to dial up another bet on Kevin Durant to go off yet again in the absence of Booker. The star wing is seeing a massive bump in Usage Rate of around 9% with his running mate off the floor, and we also know he loves to shoot from the mid-range, which should work out quite well in this one.
Durant is once again right atop the league in shot frequency in this shooting zone, pulling up from inside the arc 53% of the time, and Denver is currently sitting 20th against mid-range shots over December, with opponents shooting 42.8% in the zone. He’s gone for 37 or more in back-to-back games, and his volume here won’t be in question.
Then, we’ll mix in Jamal Murray to chip in a few triples as we continue to attack this generous Phoenix defense. He’s done so in two of his last three games, but more importantly, he’s averaged seven attempts from downtown since returning from injury four games ago.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Nuggets odds
Suns vs Nuggets live odds
Suns vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +7 (-110) | Denver -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +240 | Denver -300
- Over/Under: Over 233 (-110) | Under 233 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has dropped rather dramatically in favor of the Suns, resting at 6.5 for most of Sunday night before seeing more action Monday.
- While the Suns have commanded 52% of the tickets, a firm 82% of the money is on Phoenix to cover.
- The total dropped a little bit to 222.5, where it remained for a while on Sunday, but it then took a steep dive to 230.5 in a matter of hours on Monday morning before some buy-back in the afternoon.
Suns vs Nuggets trend
The Phoenix Suns have covered the second-quarter spread in 27 of their last 40 away games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Suns vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 12-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Arizona's Family 3TV / Arizona's Family Sports |
Suns vs Nuggets latest injuries
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