Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction and Picks — 68 Ventures Bowl

While Bowling Green is a rightful favorite against Arkansas State, the Falcons can't be trusted to cover this 7.5-point spread with some of its biggest contributors limited or no longer on the roster.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Dec 23, 2024 • 18:38 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 61 hrs
BGSU
62 %
ARST
38 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Arkansas State +7.5 (-105) Arkansas State +7.5 (-105)
Read Analysis
Jaylen Raynor Arkansas State Red Devils Sun Belt Conference college football
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Bowling Green will look to win its first bowl game since 2014 when the Falcons take on Arkansas State from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama in the 68 Ventures Bowl.

With the Falcons down three of their four best players and the Red Wolves set to be close to full strength, I’m expecting a close battle between the two in my Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Thursday, December 26.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green prediction and best bet

My best bet
Arkansas State +7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Without a doubt, the best player set to play in this game is Harold Fannin Jr. for the Bowling Green Falcons, but it’s fair to wonder just how much he’ll play given the fact he’s viewed as a Top-100 talent in the NFL Draft.

Even if he does play the entirety of the game and gets fed like he has been all season by QB Connor Bazelak, the Falcons are down their three next-best players. 

Running back Terion Stewart forced the 15th-most tackles in the nation this year (63), but he’s transferring to Virginia Tech. His best blocker, All-MAC offensive tackle Alex Wollschlaeger, is headed to Kentucky. And the team’s defensive leader, Joseph Sipp Jr., is committed to Kansas.

That’s three massive losses, especially for a team that’s favored by more than a touchdown against a program from a stronger conference. Without Stewart and Wollschlaeger, this Falcons run game — which is 82nd in EPA per rush this season — will take a major hit.

It should help Arkansas State to put more focus into stopping Fannin and the passing attack while allowing star defensive end Bryan Whitehead II and his 14.3% pass rush win rate to pin his ears back. 

The other side of this matchup is the more important side, with Arkansas State capable of exposing the Falcons with Sipp out. Sophomore QB Jaylen Raynor has gotten better as the season has gone on, with 10 of his 14 touchdown passes coming over the final six games — he’s been credited with 10 big-time throws during that stretch, too.

With Raynor playing his best ball of the year and wide receiver Corey Rucker being one of the best in the G5, the Red Wolves should be able to challenge this Falcons passing defense. And they might even be able to expose their run defense — it’s 111th in EPA per rush — with Zak Wallace.

Bowling Green simply isn’t eight points better than Arkansas State without Stewart, Wollschlaeger, and Sipp.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green same-game parlay (SGP)

Arkansas State +7.5

Under 53.5

These two teams combined to put up 51.6 points per game this season, but Bowling Green accounted for more than half of those points. Without Stewart and Wollschlaeger on offense and Fannin potentially having a reduced role for the sake of keeping him healthy for the NFL Draft process, it’s hard to see these two teams going Over this number.

The Falcons have also been one of the better Under teams in college football since the beginning of October. Over Bowling Green’s last eight games, it’s 6-2 betting the Under, and both times they hit the Over, the game total was below 49.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Arkansas State vs Bowling Green odds

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green live odds

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green opening odds

  • Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green spread: Bowling Green -6.5
  • Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green moneyline: Arkansas State +185, Bowling Green -225
  • Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Bowling Green opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has since moved another full point in its direction, with the Falcons being offered at -7.5.

  • Neither team has been consistent ATS this season, with Bowling Green 6-6 and Arkansas State 5-7.  

  • The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has steadily risen over the last two weeks, with most books sitting between 52.5 and 53.

  • The Red Wolves are 6-6 betting the Over while the Falcons are just 4-8.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green betting trend to know

Arkansas State has cashed the moneyline in seven of its last 13 games for +1.00 units and a 4% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs Bowling Green.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green game info

Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Date: Thursday, 12-26-2024
Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green latest injuries

Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green weather

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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

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