The Ohio State Buckeyes remain two-score favorites as Monday night’s national championship gets closer. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish might be underdogs by 8.5 points, but there are other avenues to ponder that could provide Irish value.
These free college football picks will focus on some player props before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 20, as both ground games will be emphasized.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame props for the CFP National Championship Game
Mitchell Evans Under 33.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Will Howard Over 11.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Will Howard Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 1-18.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame CFP National Championship Game player props
Prop bet #1: Mitchell Evans Under 33.5 receiving yards
Notre Dame has an offensive line worry, a rare moment for the Irish. Then again, just about anyone would have an offensive line worry when down three of their season-opening starters and now facing the best defensive end combination in the country.
Things are not as dire for Notre Dame as that seems on the surface, not that they are good. Right guard Rocco Spindler moved into the starting lineup when Billy Schrauth sprained his ankle during the season; Spindler then played so well that Schrauth’s return supplanted left guard Sam Pendleton. Meanwhile, center Pat Coogan has become a key leader of the team as he has replaced Ashton Craig (ACL).
Most notably, Monday night starting left tackle Charles Jagusah was once expected to be the season-opening starter at left tackle, only to tear his pectoral early in preseason practices. Anthonie Knapp then became the third true freshman in Notre Dame history to start a season opener on the offensive line, only to suffer a high ankle sprain last week. Hence, Jagusah’s return, having been back in practice for about a month now.
Look back to the season opener against Texas A&M, when the Irish were uncertain of their offensive line’s cohesion and facing a dynamic defensive end in Purdue transfer Nic Scourton.
Coming off an ACL injury of his own, Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans played only 10 snaps in College Station, all of them on third downs. But look to his reserves, Cooper Flanagan and Eli Raridon. Neither is the blocking presence that Evans is, yet 39 of their 67 combined snaps were attached to the offensive line. Another 22 were in the slot, still conceivably in range of helping an offensive tackle against a defensive end.
The trio of tight ends combined for two catches for 25 yards on four targets despite taking a total of 77 snaps.
The Irish should deploy that same assist against Ohio State’s defensive end tandem of Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. Keeping Evans near the line will slow their impact, and giving Riley Leonard time to look for his receivers is more important than getting Evans downfield frequently.
Prop bet #2: Will Howard Over 11.5 rushing yards
We all know about Ohio State’s receivers. Star freshman Jeremiah Smith (14 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the three Playoff games) outshines Emeka Egbuka (15 for 204 yards and one score) and Carnell Tate (nine catches for 115 yards), but all three demand dedicated and disciplined coverage.
Frankly, those receivers have as much to do with the Buckeyes giving up less than a sack per game as the banged-up Ohio State offensive line does. Just as impressively and even more pertinently, the Buckeyes lose only 6.1 yards per game to sacks.
Opponents simply cannot devote blitzers to chasing Will Howard. They need those defenders chasing receivers and trying to camouflage coverages.
And once the Ohio State offense finds some success, opponents are too busy grasping at air. Neither Tennessee nor Oregon logged a single sack of Howard in the Playoff.
Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden will certainly pick some moments to pressure Howard, but for the most part, he will need to depend on his defensive line to create pressure. Howard will know where it is coming from and have a strong sense of his available pocket. Simply enough, he should avoid being sacked.
Howard has fallen short of this prop in six of his last seven games, but going against the best pass defense in the country, he should be more prone to taking the yards available to him. With linebackers dropping into zone coverages or trying to muck up his passing lanes, those yards may be the ones immediately in front of Howard.
As long as he avoids multiple sacks, this is a reasonable yardage prop, simply because those short running lanes will logically be open to Howard while the best pass defense in the country removes some of his usual downfield options.
Note: If scared off this prop by worries of yards lost to kneel downs, remember college football treats those as a team stat.
Prop bet #3: Will Howard Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Not only does Notre Dame boast the best passing defense in the country, but has it by a notable margin. “Expected points added” or EPA is a fancy way of saying, “Did you improve your position in the game in terms of down, distance, field position, time, and score?”
Irish opponents lost more EPA this season, per dropback, than the worst passing offenses in the country did in their seasons. Notre Dame foes threw the ball less effectively than Southern Mississippi’s offense, Kent State’s offense, and Tulsa’s offense all did.
In 15 games, opponents have thrown just 12 touchdowns, five of which came in garbage time.
In the regular season, Notre Dame gave up just 27 passes of 20+ yards, No. 6 in the country, and only 10 passes of 30+ yards, No. 11 in the country. For thoroughness’s sake, the Irish gave up four passes of 40+ yards in the regular season, No. 11 in the country.
Now, admittedly, Ohio State has the best passing attack in the country, one ripe for big plays thanks to Jeremiah Smith. But Notre Dame will devote defensive resources to preventing big plays. Slowing down the game is the best Irish hope, and forcing long Buckeyes’ possession will take away the skills that make Ohio State a different caliber of offense than any other in the country.
The Buckeyes are excellent in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 76.79% of such possessions this season, but the Irish are quite good against red-zone offenses, holding them to 53.85% touchdown results.
Of opponents’ 21 red-zone scores, six were in garbage time. Of the remaining 15, 10 were rushing tallies.
As Notre Dame’s defense bends but doesn’t break, opponents turn to the ground more often. That should remain true, even when it comes to Ohio State.
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