If the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have any hope of upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8.5-point favorites, that hope likely starts with their defense.
However, someone on the Irish offense will need to produce, and that should start with the Riley Leonard odds.
Read more in my college football picks for the upcoming National Championship, with kickoff set for Monday, January 20.
Riley Leonard player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 0.5 passing touchdowns
(+135 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Leonard anytime touchdown
Leonard Over 34.5 rushing yards
Leonard Over 149.5 passing yards
(+340 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Riley Leonard prop pick
My best bet
Riley Leonard Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
That introduction said any Notre Dame production should start with veteran quarterback Riley Leonard, but now this best bet doubts Leonard to throw a touchdown pass.
Why? To put it curtly, because an only-decent passing offense should not be expected to carry much of a load against the No. 2 passing defense in the country, in both expected points added (EPA) per dropback against and in opposing success rate, per cfb-graphs.
Furthermore, the best Irish hope in this matchup is to shorten the game by draining the clock as often as possible. Doing so will further limit Leonard’s chances to throw a touchdown.
But mostly, this is a best bet because of the odds available. The basic math of a spread doubting Notre Dame by 8.5 points and a total of 45.5 suggests the final score should be about 27-18. That thought obviously implies the Irish do not score more than two touchdowns.
The Irish have scored 44 rushing touchdowns this season compared to just 22 passing touchdowns. This offense lives and dies by its ground game, and that ground game should be emphasized against the Buckeyes’ defense.
Once close to the goal line — perhaps that should read, “If close to the goal line …” — Notre Dame is more likely to ask Leonard to run for a touchdown than to throw for one.
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Riley Leonard same-game parlay
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard Over 34.5 rushing yards
Riley Leonard Over 149.5 rushing yards
As Notre Dame worries about its offensive line’s cohesion — right guard Rocco Spindler has a balky ankle suffered in the Orange Bowl, while Charles Jagusah is increasingly expected to start at left tackle after missing the entire season to a torn pectoral because freshman Anthonie Knapp has been ruled out with a high ankle sprain — using a running back as an additional blocker near the goal line could help keep Ohio State’s dominant defensive line at bay.
That same logic emphasizes the need for Leonard to run the ball in general. He has run the ball at least nine times in each of the last four games, including 13 times in each of the last two physical wins against Georgia and Penn State (sacks adjusted).
However, he was also sacked a bit in the last four games, and college football foolishly considers sacks to be rushing yards lost by the quarterback. Even with those sacks, though, Leonard cleared this prop in three of his last four games — and Notre Dame no longer has any game to preserve Leonard for.
He has proven durable this season. Now the Irish may need to run him all night long, particularly since 58.2% of his rushing attempts have stayed ahead of the chains this season.
Updated rusher stats for Ohio State-Notre Dame https://t.co/Q7yfRIepo4 pic.twitter.com/TEcG8dswqY
— parker fleming (@statsowar) January 18, 2025
Even with a ground emphasis, this is a low enough passing total to consider. If Notre Dame does not keep Ohio State at least a little bit honest, then the Buckeyes will sell out against the run and stop the Irish in their tracks.
Throwing the ball will still be necessary, and Leonard has thrown for at least 150 yards in three of his last four games and in all but three starts this season. Two of those exceptions were absolute blowouts, the lone remaining one being that complementary win against Georgia.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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