Perhaps this is anecdotal, but it certainly seems like bowl games have fewer notable opt-outs this season, meaning matchups like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights against the Kansas State Wildcats can be treated with a bit more veracity than in recent years.
The Rate Bowl in Phoenix will, therefore, feature one of the Big 12’s most talented teams against one of the Big Ten’s most middling. If those adjectives don’t make it clear, my Rutgers vs. Kansas State predictions will side with the touchdown favorite before kickoff at 5:30 ET on Thursday, December 26.
Rutgers vs Kansas State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Kansas State -7 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
If BetMGM offered a Kansas State Wildcats team total in the realm of 28.5 or 29.5, then the Over would be a quick decision within my college football picks.
That will be the onus of this handicap, but to assure you a strong Wildcats offensive performance should be all that's needed, let’s quickly point out that the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will be repeatedly running into a defense that excels at stopping rushes on a down-by-down basis.
The Scarlet Knights run the ball 7.5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and they do not dazzle with explosive plays.
Taking that approach against Kansas State will be the Arizona embodiment of running into a brick wall. The Wildcats rank No. 6 in the country in defensive rushing success rate, allowing opponents to stay ahead of the chains just 35% of the time.
Once we recognize what Rutgers's frustration will be, the question becomes simple: Can Kansas State score enough to stay ahead by a touchdown?
The Wildcats were expected to contend in the Big 12 thanks to one of the best rushing backfields in the country. They were undone by an offensive line that was not inherently up to the task.
A month off can boost an offensive line. Chemistry is rebuilt and reestablished with those practices. And that should only further Johnson’s and Edwards’ effectiveness.
Kansas State already ranks No. 18 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, a rank buoyed immensely by explosive plays in comparison to the Wildcats ranking just No. 61 in rushing success rate, more a measure of down-by-down ability.
The great news for Kansas State is this fits against Rutgers’s exact weakness. The Knights give up successful rushes on nearly half of their opponents’ ground attempts.
The Wildcats’ so-so down-by-down rushing ability should see a distinct improvement in the Rate Bowl, in part because the offensive line play should level up during December and in part because Rutgers dreads this exact concern.
Rutgers vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas State -6.5
Over 50.5
Combining the Wildcats against the spread with this Over is a bet emphasizing how much of a mismatch this will be for the Knights' defense. Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards are always ripe to rip off explosive scores.
Rutgers ranks No. 91 in the country in EPA per rush against. In other words, those lanes toward explosive scores will be readily available.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rutgers vs Kansas State odds
Rutgers vs Kansas State live odds
Rutgers vs Kansas State opening odds
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State -7
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State moneyline: Rutgers +255, Kansas State -320
- Rutgers vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Rutgers vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened at -7 and spent the month of December there but for a few toggles downward to -6.5.
- Over the weekend before Christmas, most sportsbooks stuck at -6.5, though one can wonder if holiday idle time and twiddling thumbs will push that back to -7.
- This total opened at 52.5 and dropped to 51.5 a day later, then falling to 50.5 a week later.
Rutgers vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Kansas State has gone 2-1 outright in bowl games under Lance Liepold, 2-0 outright and against the spread when favored. Find more college football betting trends for Rutgers vs. Kansas State.
Rutgers vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Rutgers vs Kansas State latest injuries
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Rutgers vs Kansas State weather
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