Break out your favorite potato-based dish and tune into the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between the Northern Illinois Huskies and Fresno State Bulldogs at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
Transfer portal defections and opt-outs are rampant for both squads but my Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State predictions favor the MAC squad for a couple of reasons.
Find out why in my college football picks for Monday, December 23.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Northern Illinois -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
First and foremost, and as usual, with the current situation in bowl season, let’s evaluate the absences for both squads.
Northern Illinois will be without its top passer (Ethan Hampton) and receiver (Trayvon Rudolph), as well as starting running back Antario Brown. Defensively, the Huskies will be without two starters on the line of scrimmage (DT Skyler Gill-Howard, DE Jalonnie Williams) and a few other rotational pieces.
Fresno State will be without its starting quarterback (Mikey Keene) and two starting receivers (Jalen Moss, and Raylen Sharpe) on offense. Six starters (three corners, two defensive linemen, and a linebacker) will be absent on defense.
Josh Holst will get the nod as NIU’s starting quarterback while Jayden Mandal and Joshua Wood are listed with an “OR” on Fresno State’s depth chart. Holst attempted 81 passes across six games and therefore gives NIU an experience edge at the position. Mandal attempted just three passes while Wood was only used in Wildcat packages.
NIU’s offense still shouldn’t change much regardless of the switch at quarterback. The Huskies want to pound the rock (12th in rush rate), racking up 207.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry.
Both Gavin Williams (897 scrimmage yards, five touchdowns) and Telly Johnson (425 scrimmage yards, four touchdowns) carried the load when Brown missed four games this season. The passing attack didn’t utilize Rudolph (37 receptions) to his full capacity anyway, so his absence won’t change their mentality.
The best unit on the field will be an NIU defense checking in at ninth in EPA per play and 12th in success rate while holding opponents to 281 total yards per game on 4.6 yards per play.
Fresno typically prefers to throw the ball (21st in pass rate) but could struggle to do so here with an inexperienced quarterback and a depleted receiving room. The Huskies are nasty against the pass anyway (fifth in EPA per pass, fourth in passing success rate).
The Bulldogs haven’t been able to rely on their ground game, ranking 119th in EPA per rush and 126th in rushing success rate. The line will be at full strength for this game, but it’s an underwhelming unit (121st in line yards, 88th in stuff rate).
The Huskies’ absences shouldn’t alter their identity much and this is still an ascending program under Hammock. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are in taters on both sides of the ball and are simply looking to end the pain after a disappointing year.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State same-game parlay (SGP)
Northern Illinois -2.5
Under 40.5
The expectation is for this to be a low-scoring bowl game between two strong defensive teams that have ravaged offensive depth charts. The total has been set down at 40.5, and even that might not be low enough.
Fresno’s calling card has been a strong defense (18th in EPA per play) that excels at limiting big plays (13th in explosives). Despite the absences, the Bulldogs should be able to put forth a strong defensive effort against a depleted NIU offense.
On the flip side, Fresno has been poor from an efficiency standpoint on offense (112th in EPA per play, 118th in success rate). Every unit other than the line has question marks for the Potato Bowl, and the line has been arguably the lowest-performing unit on the team.
NIU hasn’t allowed 30 points in any game this season and held Notre Dame to 14 points on 286 total yards and 4.7 yards per play. The Huskies should limit a makeshift Fresno offense. They’ll keep the ball on the ground when they’re on offense, keeping the clock ticking throughout the afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Northern Illinois vs Fresno State odds
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State live odds
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State opening odds
- Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State spread: Fresno State +2.5
- Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State moneyline: Northern Illinois -131, Fresno State +112
- Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Over/Under: 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State spread and Over/Under analysis
- NIU has covered the first-half spread (-1.5 at BetMGM) in 7 of its last 11 games.
- Fresno State has not covered the first-quarter spread (+0.5 at BetMGM) in any of its last 8 games.
- Fresno State has cashed the Under in 5 of its last 7 games.
- NIU has gone Under the total in 4 of its last 6 games away from home.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State betting trend to know
NIU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games lined within a touchdown. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Illinois vs Fresno State.
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State game info
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Monday, 12-23-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State latest injuries
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Northern Illinois vs Fresno State weather
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