Suns vs Clippers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Gordon Continues to Let It Fly

After dropping Game 1 in dispiriting fashion, the Phoenix Suns rallied to win Game 2 against the Los Angeles Clippers at Footprint Center, but though the Suns ultimately prevailed, the Clips. had definitely proven themselves as equals.

Thursday, April 20 is the all-important Game 3. With both the Suns and Clippers desperate to seize control of this series as the action shifts to L.A., critical absences will make life very difficult for the home side.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Suns vs. Clippers believe that Eric Gordon’s shooting will continue to be critical to L.A.’s game plan.

(Editor's Note: This preview was originally published before Thursday afternoon's news that Kawhi Leonard is out for Game 3.)

Suns vs Clippers Game 3 best odds

Suns vs Clippers Game 3 picks and predictions

Game 2 was a demonstration of just how potent the Phoenix Suns offense can be when it's firing on all cylinders. Even though they took an incredible number of shots from the long midrange, they converted those shots on a points-per-possession level that rivals most team's spot-up 3-point shooting.

With Kawhi Leonard out, Russell Westbrook will do his part to make Phoenix pay in the in-between spaces, the rest of the Los Angeles Clippers have to tilt the math more in their favor. That means emphasizing shots at the rim, offensive rebounds, and most critical of all, high-volume 3-point shooting.

It’s the latter that presents the Clippers their best chance to take control of this series at home and to minimize the talent gap that grew to an untenable size with the news that Paul George would miss the entire series, and Leonard now joining him for Game 3. L.A. has multiple players they can turn to for 3-point shooting, but their best combination of volume and efficiency is undoubtedly midseason acquisition Eric Gordon.

Gordon languished on a tanking Rockets team for so long, many have forgotten that his ability to shoot without conscience was one of the key engines that made the Harden-era Rockets go. He’s one of the pioneers of the super deep three, taking shots from much further behind the arc in order to both surprise unprepared defenses and create even more space for interior scorers to operate.

Gordon can shoot off the dribble, moving off of screens, off the catch, as well as stepping back. Gordon’s also not just a pure perimeter specialist and his ability to score in a multitude of ways make it harder for opposing teams to neutralize his shooting.

Gordon shot 42.3% from deep as a Clipper on five attempts per game. Gordon’s volume down the stretch of the regular season might not seem impressive, but that was before he was firmly ensconced in the playoff rotation. Now, he’s critical to how the Clippers want to play against Phoenix on both ends, so I expect he’ll see his minutes and shot attempts steadily climb.

The Suns were also much more aggressive in blitzing the pick-and-roll in Game 2. There are going to be a lot of plays where a Clippers player is left to attack a rotating defense. Gordon should be one of the primary beneficiaries of L.A.'s increased need for ball movement.

Gordon is 7-16 from deep over the first two games — good for 43.7% — and I expect him to build on his success from outside tonight to eclipse this prop once again.

My best bet: Eric Gordon Over 2.5 made threes (+100)

Suns vs Clippers Game 3 spread analysis

This has been an utterly fascinating series so far. The line as of Thursday morning was just Suns -2.5, a clear nod to both L.A.’s homecourt advantage and what have been two tightly contested first contests.

But with Leonard now out, the spread has ballooned to -7, or even 7.5 at some books, with the Clippers extremely thin on star talent. In order to keep this game even remotely close, they'll need to play at peak efficiency.

Phoenix’s path is much less complicated but no less perilous. They need Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to have superstar performances, they need Chris Paul not to hesitate, and they need Deandre Ayton to be aggressive and physical. 

Which of those paths is more likely as the series returns to L.A.? I’d would've leaned Clippers prior to the Kawhi news. Not only does the rubber band effect turn in their favor now coming off the loss in Phoenix, but they’ll also have a homecourt advantage that should bolster the energy and shooting performances of their role players.

That being said, the Suns are more than capable of putting together a shooting performance like in Game 2 on any given night, which is why my preferred bet is the Gordon prop.

Suns vs Clippers Game 3 Over/Under analysis

The Suns' offense in Game 2 was patently absurd, even against what was a pretty robust defensive effort by most of the Clippers players.

Phoenix finished with a 65.9% effective field goal percentage, including 72.7% from the long midrange area, per Cleaning the Glass. Modern NBA defense has emphasized limiting threes and attempts at the rim in exchange for giving up those exact shots, but no successful defense can survive a barrage by Durant, Booker, and Paul when they all have it going. 

The only reason this game was close at all was that the Clippers continued to thrive in all the areas outside of shooting from the field. L.A. did a great job attacking in transition, getting to the foul line, and rebounding their own misses.

The total for Thursday has fallen from 227.5 to 224.5 at most books with Leonard sitting. Game 2 ended up at 232, and while I’m not quite prepared to call what the Suns did an outlier performance given their talent, neither am I willing to count on that level of shooting again, particularly on the road. I’d slightly lean towards the Under.

Suns vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0-1 in the Suns' last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Clippers.

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