The No. 11-seed Phoenix Suns are on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture looking in, but a win over the No. 5-seed Houston Rockets could bring Kevin Durant & Co. one game closer to a Play-In spot.
Phoenix could sorely use a win, but my Suns vs Rockets predictions expect Houston to emerge victorious at home.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should back the home team on Wednesday, March 12 with the tip set for 8 p.m. ET.
Suns vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Rockets moneyline (-180 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s been a rough season for the Phoenix Suns, and their fortunes won’t improve at Toyota Center tonight. The Suns are 15-19 against the spread on the road and 7-9 ATS as the road underdog this season. The Houston Rockets are 17-15 ATS at home and 14-13 ATS as the home favorite. Phoenix has covered in four straight, and I’m not as confident in the Rockets covering as I am in them winning this one straight up.
Houston is 19-8 SU as the home favorite, and Phoenix is just 1-15 as the road underdog. Phoenix has won just 12 of 34 games away from Footprint Center, while Houston is 22-10 at home.
Over the last 10 games, Houston sports a 110.7 defensive rating, good for sixth-best in the Association. Phoenix’s 122.9 defensive rating ranks 28th in that span. The Rockets have a 113.9 offensive rating (18th) and a 3.2 net rating (11th). The Suns sport the fifth-best offensive rating at 120.2, but their net rating of -2.7 is 19th.
The Suns have had no problem scoring, but they’ve been unable to keep opponents from doing the same. Houston’s strong defense more than makes up for its below-average offense, and the Rockets should contain a nearly full-strength Suns squad and turn defense into offense.
Over the last 10, the Suns have allowed opponents to score 21.8 points per game off of turnovers, most in the Association. On the season, the Rockets have scored 15.8% of their total points off of turnovers, good for 11th most.
Phoenix’s lackluster defense has surrendered the sixth-most triples per game this season at 14.1, but they’ve averaged a whopping 17 over the last 10. In that same span, the Suns have allowed opponents to shoot a blistering 40.4% from downtown. Houston has shot 37.8% from beyond the arc over its last 10, good for eighth-best.
The win/loss trends point squarely at Houston to win this game, but the defensive disparity between these teams seals the deal for this selection. I expect the Suns to keep it close with all of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal expected to play, but the Rockets will control the tempo and come out with a win in a low-scoring affair.
Suns vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets moneyline
Under 229
Alperen Sengun double-double
The Suns are 34-29-2 to the Over this season, and the Rockets are 32-32-1. Phoenix is 9-7 to the Over as the road dog, but Houston is 12-14-1 to the Under as the home favorite. Phoenix’s poor defense will allow Houston to score a few more points than usual, but I expect Houston’s elite defense to contain the Suns’ potent scorers and keep this score Under 229.
Over the last 15 games, the Suns have allowed opposing centers to average 25.7 points, 18.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists. This is a tremendous matchup for Alperen Sengun, who has recorded a double-double in 37 of 61 games this season, including 19 of 31 at home.
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Suns vs Rockets score prediction
Rockets 113, Suns 111
Phoenix has just one win in 16 games as the road underdog this season, and Houston is 19-8 as the home favorite.
Suns vs Rockets odds
Suns vs Rockets live odds
Suns vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +4 (-110) | Houston -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +145 | Houston -170
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Phoenix is 25-39-1 ATS this season.
- Houston has covered in three straight.
- The Suns have hit the Over in seven of their last 10.
- The Rockets have hit the Under in six of their last 10.
Suns vs Rockets trend
The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 80 games (-28.20 Units / -16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Rockets.
How to watch Suns vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family 3TV/Arizona's Family Sports, Space City Home Network |
Suns vs Rockets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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