The Phoenix Suns will be putting a five-game winning streak on the line when they take on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is similarly hot right now.
Before losing a tight game against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, the Timberwolves had won and covered in 10 of their last 11 games.
Will Minnesota make a statement by earning a massive Western Conference victory over Phoenix? Keep reading our NBA betting picks and predictions to find out.
Suns vs Timberwolves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites in this game, but they’re now laying 1.0 in most spots by the time of this writing. The total, which opened at 234.5, has shot all the way up to 237 and there doesn’t appear to be a number high enough on this one.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Suns vs Timberwolves predictions
Predictions made on 3/23/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Suns vs Timberwolves game info
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North-Minnesota, Bally Sports Arizona-Phoenix
Suns vs Timberwolves betting preview
Key injuries
Suns: Jae Crowder F (Probable), Cameron Payne G (Probable), Chris Paul G (Doubtful), Cameron Johnson F (Out), Frank Kaminsky C (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Timberwolves are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last 29 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.
Suns vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Timberwolves are coming off of a tough loss to the Mavericks, as they really had a chance to win that game on the road. Still, Minnesota has won 10 of its last 12 games, with the team being 10-1-1 against the spread in those contests. Now, the Timberwolves face a shorthanded Suns team, and they get to do that in front of what should be an electric home atmosphere.
Over the last 12 games, there isn’t a team in the league that has a better net rating than Minnesota. The Suns are second in the NBA in that span, but their net rating is just 10.8 and the Wolves sit at 15.5. This is going to be a tough game for Phoenix with Chris Paul still likely to be out with injury, as this one should be rather close entering the fourth quarter. That’s when Paul is able to lean on his experience to settle his teammates down and create good shots. Without him, it wouldn't be surprising if this game spirals a bit in the home stretch.
While Devin Booker is playing some unbelievable basketball, the Timberwolves have the firepower of Anthony Edwards to match him on the wing. Meanwhile, Phoenix might not have an answer for Karl-Anthony Towns. Deandre Ayton is one of the better centers in basketball, but Towns does a lot of his work at the 3-point line. Ayton isn’t as comfortable when defending away from the basket, so Towns will have an advantage there. Also, if the big man is shooting the three well in this game, there will be open lanes for the rest of the Timberwolves to attack the basket.
It’s also worth noting that the Timberwolves covered when these teams met in Minnesota on November 15. The team has only improved since that game and they appear to be ready to make a statement and beat the Suns — especially with them not being at full strength.
Prediction: Timberwolves +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Suns are third in the league in offensive rating this season, while the Timberwolves are currently sixth in the NBA. These are two of the best teams in basketball when it comes to putting the ball in the hoop, and Minnesota happens to play at the fastest pace in the league. That’s especially significant when also factoring in that Phoenix ranks fifth in pace over its last 10 games. The Suns have upped the tempo with Paul on the sidelines, and this game really should turn into an Over bettor’s dream.
The Over is 10-2 in Phoenix’s games with totals of 230 or higher this season, and the average total points scored in those games is 244.1. The Over is also 8-1 in the second half of the season when Minnesota faces teams that shoot 36% or better from the 3-point line.
Prediction: Over 237 (-110)
Best bet
With the way the Timberwolves are playing right now, it’s just hard to go against them in a home game. The Suns are undoubtedly the better team, but they’ll be missing some key pieces. Phoenix has been finding ways to win games without Paul and Johnson, but most of those wins were home games or road wins over mediocre teams. This Timberwolves squad is one that is really underrated on a national level, but the team can change that by turning in a good performance tonight.
Minnesota also happens to be 11-0 ATS when playing at home in games with a total of 230 or higher this season. The Timberwolves are also 17-4 ATS when trying to avenge a road loss versus an opponent this year, and they lost by 10 in their last trip to Phoenix.
Pick: Timberwolves +1.5 (-110)
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