Suns vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Scoring Could Grind to a Halt

There were no games on the NBA betting board yesterday but the league is making up for it on Wednesday with 13 games on the slate, including a Western Conference showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves are expected to have Rudy Gobert back in the lineup while the Suns will be without Chris Paul. Although the status of their superstar point guard is up in the air, NBA odds are still listing the Suns as 1.5-point road faves in this contest with the Over/Under at 223.

Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Timberwolves on November 9.

Suns vs Timberwolves best odds

Suns vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

The Timberwolves dropped 129 points against the defensively inept Rockets on Saturday, but that's the only game in their last five where they have scored more than 107 points.

Minnesota has really struggled with spacing this season as they try to adjust to playing Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns at the same time. Those problems should be exacerbated against a Suns team that holds opponents to just 103.5 points per game — the second-lowest number in the NBA. 

That said, Minnesota ranks ninth in the league in defensive rating and Gobert has helped on that end of the floor. The Suns have averaged just 98.7 ppg on 43.3% shooting over their last three games and could be even worse without Chris Paul, who has been ruled out with a heel injury.  

Cameron Payne is a solid replacement at PG but moving him into the starting lineup creates a hole off the bench (where Phoenix already doesn't get enough scoring) and he isn't anywhere near Paul's level as a passer. 

The total has ticked down from its opening number of 225 but there is still plenty of value in playing the Under. 

My best bet: Under 223 (-110 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Timberwolves spread analysis

The Suns are coming off a season where they finished with the league's best record at 64-18. While they are 7-3 this season, they've gone just 1-2 straight up and against the spread in their last three games and are coming off a 100-88 loss to the 76ers. 

Devin Booker is filling up the hoop for Phoenix while Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges have been extremely efficient from the field (combing for 30.2 ppg on 57.8% shooting).

That said, they won't be able to get as many open looks without Paul and his 9.4 assists per game and the Suns will also be without starting forward Cam Johnson who suffered a meniscus injury last weekend. 

The Wolves are fresh off a 120-107 loss to the Knicks and are just 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games. They were without Gobert in their last two games due to COVID-19 protocols but the big man practiced yesterday and should be good to go. 

So far, the Gobert experiment has been an abject failure for Minnesota. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year was expected to help the Wolves take the next step but appears to be bogging down the offense and the young talent surrounding him seems to have plateaued. 

Suns vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

The Suns hold opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 50.4% which ranks second in the NBA. They also play at the third-slowest pace in the league but it will be interesting to see if they move at a faster tempo without Paul.

The Wolves play at the fourth fastest pace in the league but it hasn't really helped them out on offense since they rank a modest 12th in the league in scoring with 113.7 ppg. 

D'Angelo Russell has been awful at the point and is averaging just 13.5 ppg on a career-worst 37.9% shooting. He's also averaging 3.1 turnovers per game and is at the helm of an offense that is 25th in turnover rate. 

Anthony Edwards also hasn't elevated his game and seems to be the exact same player that he was during the second half of his rookie year.

The Wolves rank just 26th in the league in three-point shooting (32.5%) and that inability to stretch the floor has been exposed with both Towns and Gobert on the floor.

There were plenty of offseason questions about whether this Minny offense would be able to gel with two seven-footers and, so far, that answer seems to be a resounding no. 

Suns vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Suns' last six road games while also cashing in five of Minnesota's previous six contests overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.

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