With a win tonight, the Minnesota Timberwolves would have multiple playoff wins in a single postseason... for just the second time in the last 20 years. However, the Phoenix Suns stand in their way, licking their wounds after a 25-point loss.
My key to making Suns vs. Timberwolves predictions and handicapping after an unexpected blowout is anticipating how each team's adjustments will affect tonight's contest. Our NBA picks for Tuesday, April 23, show one such adjustment would lead to more playmaking from a certain T-Wolves big man.
Suns vs Timberwolves predictions
My best bet
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 assists (+128 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns played efficiently in Game 1, going 5 of 9 and hitting all eight free throws to score 19 points while handing out four assists and turning over the ball just twice. He played only 27 minutes, but that is about in line with his workload since returning from meniscus surgery, playing 27 and 29 minutes in the final two games of the regular season.
As playoff games slow down, Towns may see an uptick in minutes, but the most pertinent possibility tonight is who he will be matched up against.
The Phoenix Suns have a problem on their hands in that they have only one piece of genuine size. Jusuf Nurkic has no viable interior partner in this series. Drew Eubanks averaged 15.6 minutes this season, grabbing 4.3 rebounds per game. He may be 6-foot-10, but he is not a power player by any means. Thad Young, who stands only 6-foot-8, is the only other post presence the Suns can claim aside from Kevin Durant.
Nurkic is on his own against Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, and Towns.
Phoenix may have to lean into that weakness and play small, which puts Minnesota into its own defensive bind, unsure where to put Gobert and Towns on the other end of the court.
When the Timberwolves have the ball against that smaller lineup — Durant may see a significant amount of time at the 5 — double-teams flock to Towns when he gets the ball. Even when Eubanks was on the court, he spent much of Game 1 (when he posted a -14 plus/minus in just nine minutes) guarding Reid while smaller defenders were on Towns.
Towns has long struggled with passing out of double-teams, but he managed on Saturday. He knows it is a key to Minnesota’s offense not clogging up.
With more time against smaller lineups, Towns will see more double-teams. The Timberwolves will benefit most if he continues to look for the open man, while this prop will pay out at plus-money.
Suns vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 assists
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 rebounds
Timberwolves moneyline
The Suns might not lean on Durant at the 5, so lineups would then have Royce O’Neal, Grayson Allen, and Josh Okogie as nominal forwards, if not also Bol Bol for a stretch or two. But Phoenix has to do something differently after Game 1, and Durant leading a smaller lineup would at least make Minnesota think.
If Durant is the biggest Sun on the floor, that does not mean he will be guarded by Gobert. More likely, Towns continues in that role or Jaden McDaniels takes on some of the difficulty, leaving Gobert matched up with those undersized forwards. He should enjoy rebounding in that situation.
Adding the Timberwolves moneyline to this same-game parlay is a bet on homecourt advantage, as well as on recognizing Minnesota played only OK in that Game 1 rout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Suns vs Timberwolves odds
Get the latest Suns vs. Timberwolves Game 2 NBA playoff odds.
Suns vs Timberwolves live odds
Suns vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +3 (-110) | Minnesota -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +125 | Minnesota -150
- Over/Under: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)
Suns vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened with the Timberwolves favored by three points after that Game 1 rout, a number that has not moved much, though some books prefer -3.5.
- The total fell a bit after opening at 213.5, peaking at 214 on Sunday before dropping as low as 211.5 at some books on Monday. It has settled at 212 early on Tuesday.
- Three-quarters of the handle at BetMGM has been on the Suns +3.5 despite only 49% of tickets backing Phoenix.
Suns vs Timberwolves trend
The Suns have covered the fourth quarter spread in just 29 of their last 90 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.
Suns vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Suns vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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