The Oklahoma Sooners begin Big 12 conference play as they host the No. 6 Texas Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns blew through their non-conference schedule, but there is trouble in Austin with head coach Chris Beard suspended indefinitely after being charged with a felony.
They haven't skipped a beat so far under interim coach Rodney Terry and college basketball odds opened with the Longhorns as 2.5-point road faves for today. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Oklahoma on December 31.
Texas vs Oklahoma best odds
Texas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
Some of the best betting value in sports comes from looking at teams that have been playing completely differently than they had previously performed. One example of that sort of skewed baseline is the Texas Longhorns, who had a strong team last season in their first year under Beard but played at an extremely slow pace, averaging 18.4 seconds per length of possession (which ranked 278th in the country).
This season, they've been playing at a blazing fast tempo and are now 21st in the country with 15.6 seconds per length of offensive possession. They've also been shooting the ball much better and are 10th in the nation in field goal percentage (50%) after shooting a modest 44.1% last season.
That Texas offense has continued rolling under Terry and currently ranks sixth in the country with 83.8 points per game.
Texas now has 73 assists on 101 made field goals in its last three games. The Longhorns' offense is really humming.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) December 28, 2022
4-0 under Rodney Terry.
Although the Oklahoma Sooners do play at a much slower pace, they are also extremely efficient from the field. They are seventh in the country with a 50.5 FG% while also hitting at a 39.8% clip from downtown.
This is a very different Longhorns team than the last few seasons that plodded along in low-scoring contests. Thankfully that gives us a relatively low total that we can take advantage of today.
My best bet: Over 132.5 (-113 at Pinnacle)
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Texas vs Oklahoma spread analysis
The Longhorns are 11-1 straight up this season, although they've gone just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine as they've struggled to knock down some massive spreads placed in front of them. Texas' lone loss this season came against a strong Illinois squad, and it boasts victories against No. 10 Gonzaga and Creighton.
The Horns are currently on a five-game winning streak — including four in a row under Terry — but this will be his toughest task, considering how weak their schedule has been over the last three weeks.
In their last contest, they hammered tiny Texas A&M Commerce 97-72. Texas is a well-balanced team that ranks 11th in the nation in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
The Sooners began their season with a shocking loss at home to Sam Houston State, but they've gotten into a groove since. They're 9-2 SU in their last 11 games, with a close road loss to Villanova and a defeat to No. 9 Arkansas as the only black marks on their resume.
The Sooners haven't played since December 20, when they beat Florida 62-53 at the Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte. They leaned on their defense in that contest, and although Florida center Colin Castleton dropped 22 points, the rest of the Gators went just 12-46 from the field.
Oklahoma is 31st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. As mentioned above, the Sooners have been shooting the ball extremely well, but there are some cracks on defense — especially inside.
They are holding foes to just 26.4% shooting from the perimeter (good for sixth-best in the country), but they allow opponents to shoot 50.3% from inside the arc (189th).
Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis
The Longhorns have been scoring at a much higher rate than last year, and that all starts with their play in the backcourt. Senior point guard Marcus Carr had previously never shot better than 40% from the field, but he has a 47.3 FG% this season while shooting a sizzling 44.6% from 3-point range.
Carr leads the team in scoring with 17.8 ppg, while transfer guards Tyrese Hunter and Sir'Jabari Rice are chipping in with 11.3 ppg and 9.4 ppg, respectively. This is a deep Longhorns squad, and it says a lot that last year's leading scorer Timmy Allen and five-star freshman Dillon Mitchell aren't being asked to do too much.
The Sooners average a more modest 69 ppg, but they have upped that number to 75.5 over their last four games. They are led by a pair of transfers in former First-team All-Mountain West guard Grant Sherfield (18 ppg on 47/57/89 shooting splits) and last year's Big Sky Player of the Year Tanner Groves (11.1 ppg and 6.9 rpg with a 55.4 FG%).
The Sooners rank just 337th in the country in adjusted tempo, but they had a high-scoring shootout against a fast-paced Top-10 team earlier this month when they combined for 166 points with Arkansas.
The Over has gone 4-1 in Oklahoma's last five games while also cashing in each of the Longhorns previous four contests.
Texas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in the Longhorns' last nine games on the road. Find more College basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.
Texas vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, December 31, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Texas vs Oklahoma key injuries
Texas: Text.
Oklahoma: Text.
