The Oklahoma City Thunder have been working hard to find a winning combination with Chet Holmgren sidelined, and — despite a recent win — will carry a tough run of form into this road matchup with the Sacramento Kings.
Sacramento has been on a devastating cold streak of its own, and my Thunder vs. Kings predictions don't expect that to change tonight. Read more in my NBA picks for Monday, November 25 below.
Thunder vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Thunder -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Sacramento Kings will enter this one just 1-3 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, and this one promises to be the most difficult they’ve been faced with this year.
After a huge third-quarter comeback, the Kings expended a ton of energy in a close game on Sunday and were forced to run all of their starters, save for Kevin Huerter, out for 35+ minutes. De’Aaron Fox labored through 38 minutes, most notably, and the team’s bench rotation essentially consisted of three players.
Now, an offensive-reliant Sacramento team will be tasked with scoring on the league’s best defense, and one which has been brilliant against the 3-pointer.
According to Cleaning the Glass, opponents are shooting just 35.2% from outside against the Thunder, which is the seventh-lowest mark in the league. As any good defense does, the Oklahoma City Thunder have taken away clean looks at the rim and beyond the arc, which has forced opponents into a bevy of inefficient mid-range jumpers.
Now, Sacramento has taken and made plenty of shots from the mid-range. Still, a matchup with a team that can shut down its many outside scoring threats is a tough one to really ignite this team on the type of run it’s looking for.
It also should be said that while the Thunder are giving up plenty of mid-range shots, they’ve been the best team at defending them, allowing just 35.6% of makes on such shots.
That should drive the nail into the coffin for a tired Kings team, which has been a mess offensively as they look to integrate DeMar DeRozan. As this team continues to slump defensively, their glaring weakness in defending the three should be on full display against a Thunder team that runs deep with shooters.
Thunder vs Kings same-game parlay
Thunder -4.5
Jalen Williams Over 23.5 points
Keegan Murray Over 6.5 rebounds
As we look to attack this middling Kings defense, there’s really no better place to turn to than the indomitable Jalen Williams.
Williams has taken his opportunity and run with it in light of the injury to Holmgren, shattering this total in five of his last six games and averaging 26.2 per contest. The Kings rank dead last in shot frequency allowed at the rim, getting cooked from the mid-range and beyond the arc, which sets up nicely for Williams, who's an excellent shooter and creates a ton of space to shoot off the dribble.
The only area Sacramento really has a leg up on Oklahoma City is on the glass. As we anticipate plenty of misses from the underdogs, I’m interested in Keegan Murray, who’s recorded three offensive rebounds in consecutive games and is now averaging eight total boards over his last five games.
Oklahoma City has allowed the 10th-most rebounds to opposing power forwards and sits dead last on the glass, giving Murray an opportunity to shine.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Kings odds
Thunder vs Kings live odds
Thunder vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 | Sacramento +4.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -190 | Sacramento +160
- Over/Under: Over 223| Under 223
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Thunder vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- After taking a trip down to -4 most of the day on Monday, this line has since moved right back to the opening line of 4.5.
- While a whopping 73% of the spread bets are on the Thunder, 87% of the money is on the Kings.
- The total has made a steady climb over the last 20 hours, reaching 225.5 on Monday afternoon with very little resistance.
- The Over has accounted for 82% of the tickets and 75% of the handle.
Thunder vs Kings trend
The Kings have cashed the Under in 27 of their last 39 games for +13.8 units and a 32% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Kings.
How to watch Thunder vs Kings
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 11-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma, NBC Sports California |
Thunder vs Kings latest injuries
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