Mississippi Rebels’ head coach Lane Kiffin has tweeted some bold claims in the last few weeks. So did plenty of others, but everyone else was arguing Alabama should have been in the College Football Playoff, and the Tide made sure to turn that into a laugh in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
Kiffin has a chance to strengthen his future arguing position with a dominant win against the Duke Blue Devils, and tonight's Duke vs. Mississippi predictions expect exactly that in the Gator Bowl.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, with the game airing on ESPN.
Duke vs Mississippi prediction and best bet
Who will win Duke vs Mississippi?
Duke’s offense has already been a weak spot this season. With quarterback Malik Murphy transferring to Auburn, the Blue Devils may be fundamentally broken on that side of the ball, with all due respect to Henry Belin IV.
Against Mississippi, that could become an ugly downgrade. It has been forgotten since the Rebels lost to Florida to doom their Playoff hopes, but this roster was built defense-first. And it paid off.
Well, it first paid the players. And then it paid off.
Mississippi’s defense should assure this win more than its offense, though Rebels’ head coach Lane Kiffin will certainly find his fun on the scoreboard at some point.
My best bet
Mississippi -17.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Not to sound condescending, but this is simply a “too bad” way to end a surprisingly delightful Duke season. There were no expectations of the Blue Devils, not with a preseason win total of 6.5 and landing at No. 11 in the preseason ACC media poll.
And then Duke rattled off a 9-3 record in Manny Diaz’s first year in Durham. Even two of those losses were rather impressive, taking SMU to overtime and leading Miami well into the second half. The Blue Devils pulled off four outright upsets this year.
There will not be a fifth. Not even close.
By no means has a mass exodus decimated Duke’s roster, but the offense has been hit behind center: Malik Murphy opted out to transfer to Auburn, and backup quarterback Grayson Loftis has entered the transfer portal because of Darian Mensah’s incoming transfer.
And this offense struggled in the first place.
The Blue Devils did not really have an offensive identity this season, hence Diaz's emphasis on landing Mensah from Tulane. The best thing about Duke's offense is it occasionally found an explosive rush.
This brings us to the bad news: Mississippi’s defense is excellent. It has lost a couple of contributors this month, but not many, and it has the talent to spare. Most pertinently, the Mississippi Rebels rank No. 2 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against per cfb-graphs.
Mississippi’s offense can be trusted to do the things Kiffin usually likes to do, even against an impressive Duke defense.
Jaxson Dart has said he will play in this game, a 2024 trend that reflects bettered NIL contracts. Given how ineffective the Blue Devils' offense will be, if he can connect on just a few scores, that should be more than enough to cover this number.
Duke vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -16.5
Under 51.5
Taking this Under along with Mississippi to cover such a lofty spread escalates this same-game parlay’s payout, the math assuming a three-score win would necessitate plenty of points overall. But that assumes Duke will score enough to help push this game toward its Over.
If the Blue Devils could manage only 23 points against Wake Forest in their regular-season finale — the Demon Deacons having the No. 81 EPA defense this season — why should they be expected to reach 20 in the Gator Bowl without either of their top-two quarterbacks?
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Mississippi odds
Duke vs Mississippi live odds
Duke vs Mississippi opening odds
- Duke vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -14
- Duke vs. Mississippi moneyline: Duke +400, Mississippi -550
- Duke vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Duke vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
- Mississippi opened as a 14-point favorite when this bowl matchup was announced, and early movement knocked the spread down to -12.5 within 24 hours. Logically, the gambling world expected opt-outs to arrive en masse as they have across the sport in past bowl seasons. But there is more and more evidence the 2024 rendition of a boilerplate NIL agreement included enough of a bowl incentive to get quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart to play.
- As it became apparent the Rebels’ roster would not be decimated, this number began to climb, reaching -14.5 a few days after the bowl announcement and then leaping to -17.5 after Christmas.
- The total opened at 53.5 and held at 52.5 until after Christmas, then falling to 51.5.
- According to Covers Consensus, spread picks are dead-even at 50/50, while 67% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Duke vs Mississippi betting trend to know
The ACC has gone 0-10 against the spread this bowl season, pending Louisville’s result in the Sun Bowl as a 1-point underdog against Washington. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Mississippi.
How to watch Duke vs Mississippi game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-2-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs Mississippi latest injuries
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Duke vs Mississippi weather
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